Are You Renting???

Are you renting? If so, hit this LINK and plug in your rent. It will give you an accurate calculation if you should buy or continue to rent. I think that you will find it shocking how much you can truly afford. I look forward to hearing about your experience.

Donating Plasma

As an agent for Arbor, my desire it to respond to phone calls and emails quickly (even on my days off). If you were unable to reach me on Friday morning, it was for a very good reason. Here is the story behind Friday morning:" On Friday my wife and I donated Plasma. I have donated before for the Red Cross, but never got paid for it. My wife and I decided to see how much we could get paid for donating. After about 20 minutes on the web, we found a place in Portland that pays: Biomat USA. On your first donation you receive $25 and on the second $40. We don't need the money, we just thought if we are going to donate, why not get paid?

So we left the kids with the grandparents and headed off early to Biomat. We needed to stand in line 30 minutes before they open to make sure we got in, it is that popular. We pulled up into the parking lot, immediately I wanted to leave. There was a very different variation of people that I was not used to. My wife said "no, we are doing it" and we got in line. We waited in line for over 30 minutes, then they opened the doors and rushed us in. When we first entered, it looked like the DMV back in LA California, lots of seats with blue tones on the walls. After signing in and getting a physical, I was placed on a bed away from my wife. Now here comes the very interesting part. All these people there were doing it for money. My wife and I would have done it for free to help save lives. We just wanted some fun money to go out to a nice lunch. But these people really needed the money. One guy that was donating, needed the money for his 5 hour old baby. Another needed the money because he just lost his job. My heart was breaking the longer I spent there. I was so sadden for these people that "need" to sell a part of their body to not go hungry, or for their children not to go hungry. How blessed I am to have a great job, that pays well and allows my children to never go hungry. You would think that these people would be down hearted about their situation, but no! They were upbeat and encouraging.

Now here comes the embarrassing part. So I am 50 minutes into donating and feeling good when all of a sudden, I felt dizzy and sick to my stomach. The nurse looked over at me and began to run to me. She said "are you okay?" I said NO! She called over 3 other people to help. They put my feet up, began fanning me with my chart and gave me an ice pack. I thought I was going to die. They shut off the machine that separated my plasma from my blood and took the needle out. I began to feel better. Everyone was looking at me (at least that is what it felt like). I was so humbled. After I was feeling better, a lot of the people that were donating ask if I was okay. Again I was humbled, because when I first walked in to the place I wanted to know if they were okay.

My wife and I each collected our $25 and left. As we were getting out of the parking lot, a man (who had just donated) asked if we could jump his car. We did. He was the father of 3 children (1 just 2 months old) and his car was really beat up. He really needed the money for his 3 kids. My wife and I left and went to our favorite BBQ restaurant Russell Street BBQ. We spent $25 at Russell Street and then bought a $25 gift card for my in laws for baby sitting. The same money that we paid for BBQ tofu and a gift card, was the same money that other donors were paying for diapers. I am very blessed and I am reminded to be very thankful for what I have!

July new US home sales up 9.6 percent

New US home sales in July surge 9.6 pct, beating expectations in 4th straight monthly increase

By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
On Wednesday August 26, 2009, 12:27 pm EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of new U.S. homes surged 9.6 percent in July, another sign the housing market is climbing back from the historic bottom it reached early this year. Driven by falling prices, the fourth-straight monthly increase was greater than expected.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 from an upwardly revised June rate of 395,000. Sales are now up more than 30 percent from the bottom in January, but are still off nearly 70 percent from the frenzied peak four years ago.
The median sales price of $210,100, however, was down slightly from $210,400 in June and was off 11.5 percent from year-ago levels. Prices are still up from March's low of $205,100.
Last month's sales pace was the strongest since September and exceeded the forecasts of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who expected a pace of 390,000 units.
In a kind of Cash for Clunkers effect, homebuyers are rushing to take advantage of a federal tax credit that covers 10 percent of the home price, or up to $8,000, for first-time owners. Home sales must be completed by the end of November for buyers to qualify.
Builders and real estate agents are pressing Congress for that credit to be extended. If it isn't, sales could reverse their upward trend.
Some builders are already seeing sales dip.
At A.F. Sterling Homes in Tucson, Arizona, sales dipped in July because the builder said it couldn't guarantee the homes could be finished in time to qualify, said Randy Agron the company's vice president,
"The real estate market is really a fragile thing," he said. "It's not the right time to take (the tax credit) away."
But still, the economy is healthier now, so sales are unlikely to fall back to the lows of last winter, even if the credit is discontinued, said Wells Fargo economist Adam York,
"People don't have the sense of panic and dread," about their futures, he said.
As sales rise, that's likely to make builders more confident about getting going on new projects, and that's likely to eventually lead to more jobs in the construction industry, which has been hurt badly by the recession.
"These are crucial elements of a sustainable recovery," David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities, wrote in a research note.
Each new home built creates, on average, the equivalent of three jobs lasting one year and generates about $90,000 in taxes paid to local and federal authorities, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
There were 271,000 new homes for sale at the end of July, down more than 3 percent from May. At the current sales pace, that represents 7.5 months of supply -- the lowest since April 2007. The decline means builders have scaled back construction to the point where supply and demand are coming into balance.
AP Real Estate Writer Alex Veiga contributed to this report from Los Angeles.

Consumer sentiment improves more than expected

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer sentiment rose more than expected in August and expectations hit the highest level since the recession began, indications that Americans' pessimism about the economy may be lifting.
The housing sector also showed signs of life as a national measure of home prices posted its first quarterly increase in three years.
The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday its Consumer Confidence index rose to 54.1 from an upwardly revised 47.4 in July. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a slight increase to 47.5.
Still, the index is well below 90, the minimum level associated with a healthy economy. Anything above 100 signals strong growth.
Economists closely monitor confidence because consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity. Consumer sentiment -- fueled by signs the economy is stabilizing -- has recovered a bit since hitting a record-low of 25.3 in February.
Many analysts expect the economy to grow 2-3 percent in the current July-September quarter, spurred by a more stable housing market and the Cash for Clunkers program, which has boosted auto sales.
But economists worry that without healthier consumer spending, the recovery may weaken next year.
The housing slump and a weak job market have made consumers reluctant to spend. But the outlook for jobs is improving, the Conference Board said, with fewer respondents saying positions are "hard to get," and more claiming they are "plentiful."
Consumers' expectations for the economy over the next six months rose to 73.5 from 63.4 in July, the highest level since December 2007, when the recession began. The consumer confidence survey was sent to 5,000 households and had a cutoff date for responses of August 18.
Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the jump in the expectations index meant consumers likely will spend more in the months ahead.
"It won't be a smooth ride, but with consumer confidence now tracking higher, the groundwork for a sustainable recovery appears to be in place," he wrote in a note to clients.
The housing sector also received positive news. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller's U.S. National Home Price Index rose 1.4 percent in the second quarter from the January-March period, the first quarterly increase in three years. Home prices, while still down almost 15 percent from last year, are at levels last seen in early 2003.
The reports, along with President Barack Obama's reappointment of Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chief, sent the financial markets higher. The Dow Jones industrial average rose about 80 points in midday trading, and broader indices also gained.
Obama said Tuesday that his administration's $787 billion stimulus package, and the extraordinary efforts by Bernanke to pump trillions of dollars into the financial system, have helped turn the economy around.
"Our auto industry is showing signs of life," Obama said. "Business investment is showing signs of stabilizing. Our housing market and credit markets have been saved from collapse."
Jobs are a weak spot, however, and could limit future consumer spending if Americans remain concerned about layoffs or declining wages.
Still, the Labor Department reported earlier this month that the unemployment rate dipped for the first time in 15 months, and workers' hours and pay rose slightly in July. The unemployment rate slipped to 9.4 percent, from 9.5 percent, while July job losses slowed to a total of 247,000, the fewest in a year and a big improvement from June's 443,000.

By Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
On Tuesday August 25, 2009, 12:02 pm EDT

Stocks jump as Bernanke says economy near recovery

(Bernanke the brain)

Stocks surge after Bernanke declares economy on verge of recovery, home sales jump

By Sara Lepro, AP Business Writer

On Friday August 21, 2009, 6:21 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said what investors wanted to hear, that the economy is indeed on the verge of recovery, and they responded with a rally that sent the major indexes to new highs for the year.
The Dow Jones industrials shot up 155 points Friday, closing above 9,500 for the first time since Nov. 4, and all the big indexes finished with gains of more than 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, Treasury prices tumbled, pushing yields sharply higher, as investors no longer felt they needed the safety of government debt.
The stock market's gains were broad, reaching across all industries, but the biggest jumps came from energy, industrial and material stocks as oil and commodities prices soared. Bank stocks also rose sharply.
Just nine days after the Fed declared the economy to be "leveling out" rather than contracting, Bernanke went further, saying, "the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good." Speaking at an annual Fed conference in Wyoming, Bernanke did warn that lending is not back to normal, and that the difficulty consumers and businesses are having obtaining loans will be a challenge. But his tone was the most optimistic it has been since the start of the financial crisis.
A bigger-than-expected jump in home sales also gave stocks a boost and helped send bonds lower. The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million in July, from a pace of 4.89 million in June.
It was the fourth straight monthly increase and the highest level of sales since August 2007. The rise in sales came amid a sharp decline in home prices.
The day's news ended a week of erratic trading on Wall Street. Investors have been struggling with concerns about consumer spending, but the combination of Bernanke's remarks and the home sales data pulled stocks out of the doldrums.
Still, while Bernanke's positive assessment on the economy was encouraging, the market's challenges, including rising unemployment and sluggish consumer spending, are certainly far from over. The market appears to be on an upward trajectory, but analysts cautioned that stocks will likely bounce around through at least the rest of the summer.
"The news isn't going to be all good from here on out," said Jordan Smyth, managing direct at Edgemoor Investment Advisors in Bethesda, Md.
The Dow rose 155.91, or 1.7 percent, to 9,505.96. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 18.76, or 1.9 percent, to 1,026.13, its highest close since Oct. 6. And the Nasdaq composite index rose 31.68, or 1.6 percent, to 2,020.90, reaching its highest close since Oct. 1.
For the week, the Dow rose 2.0 percent, the S&P 500 gained 2.2 percent, and the Nasdaq added 1.8 percent.
About four stocks rose for every one that fell Friday on the New York Stock Exchange where consolidated volume came to 5.88 billion shares, up from Thursday's 5 billion.
Bond prices tumbled. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, jumped to 3.56 percent, from 3.44 percent late Thursday.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 12.83, or 2.3 percent, to 581.51.
In other signs of investors' growing confidence in the economy, oil prices touched their highest point of the year on hopes that energy demand will soon pick up. After nearing $75, light, sweet crude for October delivery rose 98 cents to settle at $73.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
And the dollar, which, like Treasurys, is considered a safe-haven asset, tumbled against other major currencies.
While Bernanke's comments were clearly reassuring for the stock market, investors could quickly lose their optimism if one of their greatest concerns, consumer spending, shows more signs of weakness. The Fed's upbeat comments last week set off a rally that quickly stalled after a weak reading on consumer sentiment.
Next week, investors will get two key reports on consumer confidence that, if worse than expected, could easily upset the market's gains.
"We're not past the volatile stages of the market," said Lowell Pratt, president of The Burney Co., an equity management firm.
As job losses continue to mount, it will be difficult for consumers to feel comfortable about spending freely.
"Consumer spending normally is the driver of recoveries at the beginning," said Bob Baur, chief global economist at Principal Global Investors. "That's not happening this time."
"At some point, the market is going to ask to see more than just mixed data," he said. "It's going to want to see some real jobs produced and an end to job losses and some validation that the consumer isn't going to stay in a slump."
Analysts have long warned of an eventual decline in stocks after the market's massive jump since early March, during which major indexes have risen more than 45 percent off of 12-year lows. But the market has yet to see a significant pullback.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 1.4 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 2.0 percent, Germany's DAX index jumped 2.9 percent, and France's CAC-40 soared 3.2 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week up 184.56, or 2.0 percent, at 9,505.96. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 22.04, or 2.2 percent, to 1,026.13. The Nasdaq composite index rose 35.38, or 1.8 percent, to 2,020.90.
The Russell 2000 index, which tracks the performance of small company stocks, rose 17.61, or 3.1 percent, for the week to 581.51.
The Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index -- which measures nearly all U.S.-based companies -- ended at 10,463.53, up 223.01, or 2.2 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 13,185.26.

Homebuilder sentiment index rises in August

NEW YORK (AP) -- The National Association of Home Builders says its housing market index rose in August to the highest point in more than a year.
The Washington-based trade association said Monday the index rose one point to 18, a level not seen since June 2008.
The reading for current sales conditions was unchanged at 16, while traffic by prospective buyers rose three points to 16. The index for expected sales over the next six months jumped four points to 30, signaling that builders think the worst of the housing slump is over.
The report reflects a survey of 474 residential developers nationwide.
Index readings lower than 50 indicate negative sentiment about the market. The last time it was above 50 was in April 2006.

On Monday August 17, 2009, 1:02 pm EDT

New Signs Of Life In Housing

Steve Hagenbuckle, managing principal for TerraCap Partners, has stated some interesting points. Listen to what Steve says and let me know what you think: New Signs Of Life In Housing

New Homes for the Tax Credit of $8,000

Above you will find a picture of homes that will be done before the tax credit of $8,000 goes away. Arbor has really thought ahead to make sure we have enough inventory to sell for those that are going to take advantage of the tax credit. If you are still confused on how the tax credit works, hit this LINK that will answer all your questions.

On another note, it's official, the Feds believe that we are now working our way up out of the recession: "Stocks jump as Fed raises view of economy." I will tell you that if you are with a company that has survived and maybe even thrived in this economy, you are with a great company. I love the direction that Arbor is going. While other builders are running for the hills selling or foreclosing on land, Arbor is doing just the opposite. So the big question is, what will the new home market look like in 3 years here in the Portland Metro. Area? My prediction will be that Arbor will continue to be the number one builder in Oregon and will have the prime real estate property that everyone wants. As I have said in the past, Arbor is a forward thinking company.

Come see me or call (503-888-0133) to see what we have available for sale to meet the tax credit deadline of November 30, 2009.

A Las Vegas Vacation

My wife and I went on a 5 day vacation to Las Vegas w/out the kids (the photo is me in front of the NY hotel)! It was amazing and we didn't loose a penny (we don't gamble).
Being in the Real Estate business, I always have the housing market on my brain. As we flew in, I noticed plots of land that had a few homes on it and then just vacant lots. It looked as if the builders started building, ran out of money or foreclosed on the land and walked away. Now these poor people that purchased have less than a half built neighborhood. The scene of empty roads with dirt lots made me so sad. It makes me so proud to work for Arbor. It is nice to be selling homes and know that Arbor will be able to finish beautiful neighborhoods because we are a reputable builder that positioned ourselves very well for this market. With that said, it looks like the worst is behind us in this recession. Look at the article below.

It is good to be back to the Pacific NW!

____________________________________________________________________

NEW YORK (AP) -- The economy's most vexing problem, unemployment, is showing the first signs of easing. And Wall Street is celebrating.
Major stock indexes jumped more than 1 percent Friday after the government said the nation's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in July for the first time in 15 months and that employers cut fewer jobs. Bond prices fell, driving yields higher as investors left the safety of Treasurys.
The Labor Department report handed investors the best evidence yet that the economy could be climbing out of the recession. Analysts widely consider unemployment the biggest obstacle to a recovery in the economy, which is driven by consumer spending.
The surprise figures injected new life in a monthlong rally and provided validation for traders who have been betting since March that the economy is healing. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 114 points to cap its fourth straight weekly gain. The Dow is at its highest level since early November.
The government said employers shed 247,000 jobs in July, the fewest in a year. Economists had expected 320,000 lost jobs. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent in June, rather than rising to 9.6 percent as forecast.
"It really gave the market the proof that it needed to see," said Burt White, chief investment officer at LPL Financial in Boston.
The report is often the most anticipated bit of economic news each month on Wall Street and nervousness about what it would reveal held stocks to modest moves most of the week. The exception came Monday when Ford Motor Co. said its monthly sales rose for the first time in nearly two years because the government's cash for clunkers program was drawing customers. That, and good news about manufacturing, construction and banking, sent the Standard & Poor's 500 index over 1,000 for the first time in nine months.
With the pop Friday, the S&P 500 index is up 14.9 percent in only four weeks and 49.4 percent from a 12-year low in early March.
Still, some analysts say the gains have come too quickly and question whether an economic rebound can ever live up to the expectations investors are now setting.
"We've run very fast, very quickly," said Marc Harris, co-head of global research for RBC Capital Markets in New York. "I think we're due to take a breath."
The Dow rose 113.81, or 1.2 percent, to 9,370.07. The broader S&P 500 index gained 13.40, or 1.3 percent, to 1,010.48, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 27.09, or 1.4 percent, to 2,000.25.
About 2,300 stocks rose on the New York Stock Exchange, while about 700 fell. Consolidated volume rose to 7 billion shares from 6.8 billion Thursday.
For the week, the Dow added 2.2 percent, the S&P 500 index rose 2.3 percent and the Nasdaq rose 1.1 percent.
Meanwhile, bond prices fell as the jobs reading limited demand for the safety of government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.86 percent from 3.76 percent late Thursday.
Financial and retail stocks rallied Friday along with the broader market.
Insurer American International Group Inc. posted its first quarterly profit since 2007. The insurance giant, which is now majority owned by the government, rose $4.61, or 20.5 percent, to $27.14.
The jump in retail stocks came a day after many posted lackluster July sales. A drop in unemployment could make consumers feel more confident about making purchases, which could help the recovery along. Their spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Macy's Inc. rose 98 cents, or 6.5 percent, to $15.99.
Analysts say some of the market's recent gains are tied to short-covering, in which investors have to buy stock after having earlier sold borrowed shares in a bet they would fall.
On other days, selling has been contained because investors don't want to miss a rally that has surprised many traders with its strength. On Wednesday, the Dow fell only 39 points but it was the biggest drop in a month.
Investors will be looking for more insight into the economy when the Fed's interest-rate committee concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday. It is unclear when policymakers will decide the economy is strong enough to handle rate hikes that will be needed to keep inflation in check.
Light, sweet crude fell $1.01 to settle $70.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 14.78, or 2.7 percent, to 572.40.
The dollar mostly rose against other major currencies, while gold prices advanced.
Overseas markets also rallied on the U.S. jobs report. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.9 percent, Germany's DAX index gained 1.7 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 1.3 percent. Early Friday, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed with a gain of 0.2 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week up 198.46, or 2.2 percent, at 9,370.07. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 23.00, or 2.3 percent, to 1,010.48. The Nasdaq composite index rose 21.75, or 1.1 percent, to 2,000.25.
The Russell 2000 index, which tracks the performance of small company stocks, rose 15.69, or 2.8 percent, for the week to 572.40.
The Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index -- which measures nearly all U.S.-based companies -- ended at 10,416.26, up 269.24, or 2.7 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 12,905.73.

By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
On Friday August 7, 2009, 6:01 pm EDT

Cash for Rundown Homes

Have you heard of cash for clunkers? I am starting a campaign called "Cash for Rundown Homes." With this new government back program, people with homes that are rundown, the government would buy the home from you, give you $15,000 and you could buy a new Arbor Custom Home. Wouldn't that be great!!!

If you are interested in the "Cash for Clunkers" program hit this Link.

PS I doubt the government would ever do this, but it is food for thought.

Home price index of 20 cities in 1st monthly rise since 2006

It seems like the good news keeps coming. This is definitely a silver lining. I am excited to be working for Arbor who prepared for bad times during good times and now are preparing for good times during bad times. It looks like good times are around the corner. Read the article below.


By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
On Tuesday July 28, 2009, 2:42 pm EDT

The value of U.S. homes grew on a monthly basis in May for the first time in nearly three years, according to 20-city index released Tuesday.
The month-over-month increase was 0.5%, according to the report from financial data company Standard & Poor's and economists Case-Shiller. It was the first increase in the monthly index since July 2006.
On an annual basis, home prices in the 20 cities fell 17.1%, but it was the second straight month that the year-over-year decline lessened.
"This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee S&P, in a prepared statement.
While acknowledging that the report was good news, Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, downplayed the importance of a single month's statistics.
"I think it's a temporary respite," he said. "It reflects the recent decline in foreclosure sales, and prices will continue to fall over the next several months."
Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who co-founded the index and who's famous for warning that the housing boom was, in fact, a bubble, said the decrease in foreclosure sales does show up in the index statistics as a plus for home prices. That's one reason he did not want to sound too optimistic; foreclosures could take off again.
"And we could get more economic bad news, but it does look encouraging," he said.
He added that he thought that Washington's efforts have boosted the nation's spirits, an important factor for the housing market.
"The government has done a lot to support the housing market," he said. "Confidence has improved. People are talking about 'green shoots.' People are thinking it's time the recession came to an end. The stock market is up."
Cleveland gains: The improvement in the index was as broad as it was deep, with 13 metro areas showing gains, compared with eight in April. Two, New York and Tampa, Fla., showed no change.
The biggest winner was long-suffering Cleveland, where prices rose 4.1%. The city still falling the most was Las Vegas, where prices declined 2.6%.
The report added to the list of positive housing market indicators. These include rising new home sales, increased home building and increased pending sales.
Paul Bishop, the managing director of research for the National Association of Realtors, was glad to see the upturn but did not want to overemphasize the results of a single month, saying the economy is not out of the woods yet.
"Job losses could continue after the recession ends," he said. "That's where the economy intersects with consumers in the most tangible way. Until consumers have some level of confidence that the economy is improving, many will be reluctant to buy."
Washington's goal: Stabilizing the housing market has been a primary goal of Washington policy makers. Congress has tried to stimulate homebuying by creating a temporary tax credit of $8,000 for people who have not owned a home for at least three years.
The administration has also tried to tackle the foreclosure problem, creating a program to help mortgage borrowers avoid defaulting on their loan payments and losing their homes.
Zandi added that lenders are still figuring out the administration's foreclosure prevention plan, and have suspended the foreclosure process for many borrowers in default. That means fewer distressed properties, which tend to bring in lower prices, than usual.
One of the most positive things the government has done, according to Shiller, was to take control of the failing mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
These were government sponsored enterprises that guaranteed a flow of mortgage lending by buying or backing mortgages in the secondary market. Without government backing up these companies, mortgage lending would have dried up, which would have devastated home sales.
Lower prices: Prices have also fallen so far in so many places that it's drawing people back into the market.
In Las Vegas, prices are off about 53% from their peak, set in August 2006. Phoenix prices are down 54%.
Overall, the 20-city index is down more than 32% from its high.
Interest rates were very low in May, which also could have helped the housing market. The rate for a 30-year mortgage was well below 5% during the month, which encouraged buyers and drove up demand.
Zandi is hopeful that the market is stabilizing. "It feels like the cycle is winding down," he said. "I think it depends on how well the mortgage modification plan will work and I'm guessing it will work reasonably well."
One possible scenario, according to Shiller, is that home price declines end and then nothing happens for several years, the "L-shaped" recovery.
"Then, we can stop talking about home prices and get onto more interesting topics," he said

Stocks extend gains after home sales report

So my prediction was correct; the DOW hit 9K!!!

NEW YORK (AP) -- The Dow Jones industrials are back above 9,000 for the first time since the beginning of January.

A report Thursday of a jump in home sales eased investors' worries about one of the economy's biggest trouble spots. They responded by buying stocks across the market, lifting the major indexes more than 1.5 percent and sending the Dow up 150 points past 9,000.

A real estate group said sales of previously occupied homes rose 3.6 percent from May to June. It was the third straight monthly increase and fed investors' hopes that the overall economy is strengthening.

A weak housing market and rising unemployment are widely seen as two of the biggest obstacles to a recovery in the economy. The National Association of Realtors said sales came in at 4.89 million last month, above the 4.84 million analysts had been expecting.

Several better-than-expected earnings reports also helped boost investor sentiment. Ford Motor Co. surprised the market with a second-quarter profit of $2.3 billion due mainly to a huge gain for debt reduction, while drug maker Wyeth, cigarette maker Philip Morris International Inc. and candy maker Hershey Co. all raised their profit forecasts for the year.

A report from UPS Inc., however, was more worrisome. The world's largest shipping carrier said its second-quarter profit plunged 49 percent as sales tumbled. The company also issued third-quarter guidance below analysts' forecasts.

Investors were able to look past a government report showing a bigger-than-expected rise in new jobless claims. The Labor Department said the number of new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 30,000 last week to 554,000, slightly above analysts' estimates. However, a Labor Department analyst said the report was distorted by the timing of auto plant shutdowns.

Also, total unemployment benefit rolls fell to the lowest level since mid-April.

After a month of wayward trading, stocks restarted the market's spring rally early last week after companies like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Intel Corp. got earnings season off to a good start with solid reports.

"Things are getting much better and the market is pricing it in," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors.

In midmorning trading, the Dow rose 153.26, or 1.7 percent, to 9,034.52. The blue chips last traded and closed above 9,000 on Jan. 6.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 17.03, or 1.8 percent, to 971.10, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 32.77, or 1.7 percent, to 1,959.15.

• By Sara Lepro, AP Business Writer
• On Thursday July 23, 2009, 10:58 am EDT

Rates Stay Low

Continue to check out rates on Wells Fargo's Website.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Treasury prices rallied Tuesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reassured investors that key interest rates will stay low for some time in order to help the economy heal.
Gains built on Monday's higher prices, continuing with Treasurys' better tone this week following the prior week's rout. Last week, the 10-year yield pushed up by more than 30 basis points on better-than-expected earnings reports and after some more encouraging bits of economic data. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Tuesday though, in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Bernanke soothed Treasury market investors with word that the federal funds rate will likely remain near zero for an extended period of time, despite recent improvements in the economy. The fed funds rate is currently at a 0%-to-0.25% range.
"Clearly, Treasury investors are focusing on the fact that short rates are going to be low for an extended period," said William O'Donnell, head of U.S. government bond strategy at RBS Securities Inc. in Greenwich, Conn.
Key in Bernanke's remarks was mention of the risk posed by the commercial real estate market, O'Donnell said, word that inflation should be subdued for the next two years and Bernanke's warning that the recent stabilization in consumer spending may not hold.
Remarks "painted about as bullish a picture for Treasurys as you can get," O'Donnell said.
Bernanke did offer a more upbeat assessment of the economy and financial markets, but he said the financial system does remain stressed and the labor market has continued to deteriorate. The jobless rate is already at a 26-year high of 9.5%; the Fed expects it ratchet up even more, ending the year between 9.8% and 10.1%.
Bernanke also offered details on how the Fed will eventually withdraw the massive amount of stimulus it has extended to the economy, steps that were first laid out in an editorial he wrote Tuesday in the Wall Street Journal. He made it clear, though, that at this point, the time is not ripe to put those strategies into play.
The chairman noted that some of the emergency measures put in place during the credit crisis have already begun to wind down, and that process should continue. Paying interest on bank reserves and conducting reverse repurchase agreements to drain liquidity from the system are two other tools that the Fed could eventually employ.
In late trade, intermediate Treasurys were outperforming, also helped by another round of Treasury buying from the Fed.
The seven-year note was 22/32 higher to yield 3.02%, and the 10-year note was up 31/32 at 3.46%. The two-year note was up 3/32, with its yield having fallen back below 1%, to 0.91%.
Tuesday, the Fed bought $7 billion of Treasurys maturing in the next seven to 10 years. The central bank has now bought about $217 billion of the as much as $300 billion it has pledged toward buying Treasurys. At its current pace, it will run though the $300 billion by its next interest-rate-setting meeting at the end of September.
The Treasury market Tuesday was also helped by renewed worries about the fate of business lender CIT Group Inc. (CIT). CIT, a source of funding for thousands of small to medium-sized businesses, said early Tuesday that a $3 billion rescue package from bondholders might not be enough to keep it from seeking bankruptcy protection.
-By Deborah Lynn Blumberg, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2206; deborah.blumberg@dowjones.com
(Min Zeng contributed to this report)

Will the DOW Hit 9K?

With the DOW closing at 8848.15 up over 1%, will we hit 9,000 by the end of the week? Some annalists are saying the recession is nearing its end. Only time will tell. Read the article below.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks are rising as investors are reassured by reports that commercial lender CIT Group has a deal with key bondholders that will help it avoid bankruptcy.
Stocks are following world markets higher and extending big gains logged last week after reports in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal said CIT's board approved a deal with major bondholders to receive $3 billion in emergency funding.
Investors are also focused on the next wave of earnings reports from companies such as Boston Scientific and Texas Instruments.
A string of good earnings news sent market indicators up about 7 percent last week.
The Dow Jones industrials are up 52 to 8,796. The Standard & Poor's 500 index is up 4 to 945, and the Nasdaq composite index is up 6 to 1,893.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stock futures rose Monday as investors were reassured by reports that commercial lender CIT Group has a deal with key bondholders that will help it avoid bankruptcy.
U.S. futures followed world markets higher after reports in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal said CIT's board approved a deal late Sunday with major bondholders to receive $3 billion in emergency funding. Both the Times and the Journal cited people familiar with the matter. CIT representatives could not immediately be reached for comment.
The money will give the troubled company time to restructure and pay down billions of dollars in debt due later this year.
CIT's future was cast in doubt after negotiations with federal regulators for bailout funds fell through. Its failure would have been a big blow to investor confidence and would have hurt industries like retailing, which has suppliers who reply on CIT for financing.
Investors are also focused on the next wave of earnings reports coming this week. On Monday, companies such as Boston Scientific Corp. and Texas Instruments Inc. are set to issue results.
A string of good earnings news sent market indicators up about 7 percent last week, giving the Dow Jones industrials and the Standard & Poor's 500 index their biggest weekly gains since early March, when the market's spring rally began.
The huge advance came after a monthlong slide in stocks that was driven by reports showing the economy was not healing as quickly as hoped. But solid earnings and outlooks from companies like Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Intel Corp. and International Business Machines Corp. gave investors hope that the recession is coming to an end.
Ahead of the market's open, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 36, or 0.4 percent, to 8,733. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose 5.10, or 0.5 percent, to 942.00, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 2.50, or 0.2 percent, to 1,530.00.
Among the earnings news Monday, toy maker Hasbro Inc. said its second-quarter profit rose 5 percent, beating expectations, as strong U.S. revenue offset international sales hurt by the stronger dollar. Shares rose more than 3 percent, adding 87 cents to $26.25 in premarket trading.
Meanwhile, oilfield services company Halliburton Co. said its second-quarter profit tumbled 48 percent amid sluggish exploration and production activity. But results were better than analysts forecast and its shares rose 77 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $22.15.
Auto parts and building products maker Johnson Controls Inc.'s fiscal third-quarter earnings dropped 63 percent but exceeded expectations. Its revenue, however, fell short of analysts' estimates. Ahead of the market's open, shares added 87 cents, or 4 percent, to $22.39.
With the bulk of earnings reports still to come, the market has yet to hear from some key industries including retailing. If those results are disappointing, it could force investors to rethink their most recent rally. And the market still has a number of issues to deal with, including record-high unemployment and a damaged housing market.
"I would look for a little follow-through early this week that will hinge on quarterlies, but longer-term I think we'll see some pressure come back into this market," said Darin Newsom, senior analyst at DTN. "We're still going to have to see better employment and housing numbers."
On Monday, though, the CIT news and optimism over better earnings reports stoked investors' appetite for risk. Investors moved out of safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasurys and the dollar, and into riskier bets like commodities.
Oil prices jumped $1.12 to $64.68 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices for gold, silver and copper also rose.
Bond prices fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.67 percent from 3.66 percent late Friday.
And the dollar fell against other major currencies.
Except for a private sector group's report on economic activity, there is little economic data on tap for Monday. Economists are expecting the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators to have risen 0.4 percent in June, which would mark the third straight monthly advance. The report is to be released at 10 a.m. EDT.
Overseas, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index jumped 3.7 percent. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 1.4 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 1.4 percent, and France's CAC-40 gained 1.5 percent. Japanese financial markets were closed for a holiday.

By Sara Lepro, AP Business Writer
On Monday July 20, 2009, 9:38 am EDT

Strong results at Intel pull stocks sharply higher

NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors are betting on the economy again.
Strong earnings and an upbeat forecast from Intel Corp. pulled investors into the stock market Wednesday as hopes grew that the economy could be starting to recover. The chip maker's results signal that computer sales are picking up faster than had been expected.
That welcome sign for the economy was enough to draw out buyers after a month of little direction in the stock market. Major stock indicators jumped more than 2 percent, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which rose 180 points.
Investors also latched onto a report showing that industrial companies cut production far less in June than they had in previous months. The Federal Reserve said output at the nation's factories, mines and utilities slipped 0.4 percent last month after sliding 1.2 percent in May.
John Lekas, senior portfolio manager at Leader Capital in Portland, Ore., said Intel's second-quarter results and third-quarter forecast are giving investors a sign that the economy could be gathering strength.
"This is the first step toward recovery," he said. Lekas cautions, however, that a rebound will likely be slow.
Even a slow recovery was good news for investors who have been worried in the past month that a strong stock market rally earlier this spring was based on too optimistic a view about a quick economic comeback.
In midday trading, the Dow rose 183.72, or 2.2 percent, to 8,543.21. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 20.24, or 2.2 percent, to 926.08, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index gained 49.34, or 2.7 percent, to 1,849.07.
More than eight stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 421.3 million shares, compared with 360.2 million traded at the same point Tuesday.
Stocks also surged overseas after Intel's strong results came out. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 jumped 2.6 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 3.1 percent, and France's CAC-40 gained 2.9 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 2.1 percent.
A report showing higher than expected consumer price inflation in June did little to affect stock prices but it did send bond prices lower for a third straight day.
The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index rose 0.7 percent last month as gasoline prices surged. It was the fastest increase in 11 months and slightly worse than economists' projections of 0.6 percent. The bond market is highly sensitive to signs of inflation, which erodes the value of a bond's fixed returns over time.
The renewed surge in stock prices also robbed Treasurys of some of their safe-haven appeal as investors became more willing to take on risk. Bonds also fell on Tuesday after a report showing sharper-than-expected wholesale price inflation in June.
The 10-year Treasury note, a widely used benchmark for mortgages and other loans, fell 24/32 point, pushing its yield up to 3.57 percent from 3.47 percent late Tuesday.
Intel's upbeat report followed strong earnings earlier Tuesday from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Goldman kicked off earnings in the banking industry by easily topping analysts' earnings predictions. The Wall Street banking giant said it earned $2.72 billion, after paying preferred dividends, only two quarters after posting a steep loss during the peak of the credit crisis.
Investors will now set their sights on three other major banks -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. -- reporting second-quarter results later in the week to see if the broader sector is actually recovering from the malaise that beset the sector late last year.
JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup all have strong retail banking operations, unlike Goldman, that could pose problems as loan defaults continue to rise. Moderation in loan defaults could be a sign the economy is strengthening as customers are better able to repay loans.
Investors are getting a fresh round of earnings reports Wednesday.
Abbott Laboratories, a drug and medical-device company Abbott Laboratories said its profit fell 3 percent, but earnings met expectations. The stock fell $1.43, or 3.1 percent, to $45.06.
American Airlines parent AMR Corp. reported a smaller loss than analysts expected, sending its own shares and those of other airlines higher. AMR rose 8 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $4.26.
The dollar fell, and gold prices rose. Light, sweet crude rose $1.31 to $60.83 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Commodities stocks gained as the dollar weakened and commodity prices rose.
In other trading, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 14.01, or 2.8 percent, to 510.53.

By Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer On Wednesday July 15, 2009, 12:18 pm EDT

Link to the $8,000 Tax Credit

I am sure that we all have heard many things about the $8,000 tax credit and how it works. It amazes me how many people do not know exactly how it works. Hit this LINK and take 7 minutes to listen, you will be able to coach your CPA after you hear it. Also, I have all the forms to file. Email me and I can get them to you!

163 Oxford Floor Plan

Below you find video of home site 163. This home is beautiful overlooking the wetlands. Take a look and let me know what you think.

Arbor Custom Homes TV Spot

Yes that is me playing the sales agent. I had such a good time filming the spot. We spent about an hour and a half for 12 seconds of video. The opening scene with all three of us (Jennifer Benelli and Joe Buffington, also sales agents for Arbor) took so long to shoot. The pillar kept getting in the way and I kept messing up on my blocking. Funny, I move from LA to Oregon to become a movie star:)

Have You Used RMLS.com?

Lately a lot of our traffic we get here at Arbor Pass is from the internet. If you haven't used rmls.com, you are missing out. You can get a lot of information and even see pictures of the home. Copy this number: 8011007, then click on this link and paste. Let me know what you think of the site.

U.S. Housing Starts Soared in May; Permits Also Rose

By Shobhana Chandra

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. builders broke ground on more houses than forecast in May, offering a sign that the industry’s slump, now in its fourth year, may be approaching an end.

The 17 percent increase in housing starts to an annual rate of 532,000 followed a 454,000 pace the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Building permits, an indicator of future construction, also rose more than estimated.

Lower prices and tax incentives are attracting buyers, potentially laying the groundwork for housing to rebound and reduce its drag on the economy. Still, rising unemployment is causing many Americans to hold off on big purchases and foreclosures continue to mount, so a sustained homebuilding recovery may take longer to emerge, analysts say.

“It’s fair to say that we have found a bottom in housing, though the concern is that the bottom is at a very low level,” said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “We have a long way to go to reach more normal levels of activity.”

A separate report today showed that U.S. wholesale prices rose less than anticipated in May as food costs dropped. The Labor Department reported that its producer price index, on an annual basis, fell 5 percent last month, the biggest slide in half a century.

Stocks, Treasuries

U.S. stock futures extended gains after the housing report, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rebound from its biggest drop in a month. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index rose 0.4 percent to 923.10 at 9:08 a.m. in New York. Treasuries fell, with benchmark 10-year note yields rising to 3.74 percent from 3.71 percent late yesterday.

Housing starts were projected to rise to a 485,000 annual pace, after a previously reported 458,000 the prior month, according to the median forecast of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from 450,000 to 600,000.

Permits rose 4 percent to a 518,000 pace from a 498,000 rate the previous month. They were forecast to increase to a 508,000 annual rate.

Construction of single-family homes rose 7.5 percent to a 401,000 rate, the third straight monthly gain. Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, jumped 62 percent to an annual rate of 131,000.

Regional Breakdown

The increase in starts was led by a 29 percent jump in the West and a 17 percent increase in the South. They rose 11 percent in the Midwest and 2 percent in the Northeast.

Home starts have still plunged 45 percent from a year earlier, today’s report showed, and are down from a peak annual rate of 2.27 million in January 2006, which capped the biggest housing boom in six decades.

Other recent reports show combined sales of new and existing homes increased in April, and the number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes rose for the third straight month.

Falling prices are bringing homes within reach of more consumers, and the Obama administration’s economic stimulus plan included an $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers for purchases completed before Dec. 1.

Builders continue to face competition from existing properties. Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures jumped to records in the first quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. One in eight Americans is now late on a payment or in foreclosure.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have climbed, even as the Federal Reserve works to trim borrowing costs by purchasing Treasuries and keeping the benchmark interest rate close to zero.

The average rate on a 30-year home loan surged to 5.57 percent in the week ended June 5, the highest since November, according to the mortgage bankers group. That’s up from a record-low level in late March.

Toll Brothers, the largest luxury homebuilder, and Hovnanian, New Jersey’s biggest builder, this month reported quarterly losses as revenue plunged. Still, the companies narrowed their losses from a year earlier.

“Some buyers are beginning to re-enter the new home market,” Robert Toll, chairman and chief executive officer of Toll, said in a June 3 statement. “Cancellations appear to be leveling off” even as “concerns about job security and the economy continue to inhibit traffic,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net

THE SMELL OF FRESH CUT LUMBER

Buildings 6 and 7 now have walls. I was outside putting up the balloons when the waft of fresh cut lumber entered my nose. There are many scents that I love, one of them happens to be fresh cut lumber. There are many reasons why I love it, the freshness of it, the sweetness of it, but most of all I love that it means I work for a builder that is building new homes. I am encouraged that in this tough economy, Arbor is standing the test of times. What sets Arbor apart is the quality of neighborhoods they build. Yesterday when I drove in to my personal residence (an Arbor neighborhood) I noticed the well groomed grass, the green leaves on the trees and the happy homeowners walking. As I come in to Arbor Pass, I see that same vision a year down the line.
Above you will find building 7. The first picture was taken three weeks ago and the other was taken today.

Design On a Dime

Below you will find a letter from a very happy mother of a new homeowner.

My daughter is just turning 20 years old, but has been saving up for several years now so that she would be able to purchase her first home rather than throw money away renting. The first time she looked at the Arbor Pass Condominiums, she knew this is where she wanted to call home. She loves the "small community" feel it has to it and that it is centrally located to just about everything imaginable. It couldn't be more perfect for her, and I was thrilled she chose Arbor Pass. As her mom, I was concerned about how safe the area was. I am at ease, as I feel Arbor Pass is set in a safe environment and the neighbors seem to keep an eye out for each other.

I had been purchasing things here and there for about a year, and hiding them away for her future home. I would find great deals on decorations, furniture, clearance items and even some really great stuff on Craigslist. I kept it all hidden at my sister's place (poor girl had to make paths in her living room towards the end!) After my daughter purchased the condo, I couldn't wait to start decorating! Arbor was using me as their contact, so I kept it a secret when they gave me the key and told my daughter it must be paperwork holding it up. She had no idea that my sister and I were going over there and decorating her new home. It had been so long since I'd purchased some of it, that I'd forgotten what was in all those boxes. It was like Christmas for me! For several days we worked into the late hours, and at times I think may have become delirious from lack of sleep. But in the end, it was ALL worth it!!! Her new condo now looked like a home and everything seemed to fit perfectly into place. I am amazed that an entire condo was furnished and decorated on such a small budget.

I will never forget her reaction the day she walked into her new home. She didn't get more than two steps in before the disbelief came over her face. There were lots of tears, lots of hugs and several "Is this really mine?.........No, seriously...........Is this really mine?!"

Arbor Homes / Arbor Pass has been wonderful to work with from start to finish of the entire buying process. And I can say that they seem to go above and beyond after the home purchase as well. My daughter could not be happier here!

Chris Korenthal, your the best - Thank you!!!

Sincerely,
Sharon

Interest Rates

Interest rates 2 weeks ago were 4.875%, now they are 5.625%. Although 5.625% historically is low, I am sure that it will sadden those who waited. Don't expect the rates to fall again; now is the time to buy a home. Make it yours today, just in case rates go up again tomorrow. Track loan rates: Wells Fargo Rates

The creation of a new home

Have you ever been able to experience fresh baked apple pie from scratch to warm out of the oven? The care, precision and dedication seem to make it taste even better as you enjoy the first bite. Unlike picking up a pie from Costco, you can savor every precious ingredient that went into the delicious dessert. Not only that, but you know that you added only the best. I am not saying anything against Costco (I love Costco), but that pie was not made just for me (or by me).

That is why I love seeing a home build from the ground up. I love when a new homeowner comes in and purchases dirt with dreams and a vision of their new home. It is exciting for me to see their eager faces light up as they see walls rising and roofs being constructed. They get to see every "ingredient" that goes into their home with care, precision and dedication. Not only that, but they get to customize the inside of their home so it lives the way they want it to (not the way some previous owners liked). It is their home from creation to completion. They savor getting their keys and spending their first night in their home they saw made from "scratch."

This picture is building 7 ready for foundation. If you are in the market for a home, this might be perfect for you. Now is your chance to taste how good it could be to design your own Arbor home.