Building 21 Underway



Building 21 just started and will be ready for moving in, in June



New Winter Hours Starting November 6th

Fall Is In The Air

I think my feminine side came out when I decorated the office. I love fall, probably because growing up in California, the leaves were only 2 colors, green and brown. I am so looking forward to Thanksgiving. Come on in and check out how my decorating looks.

Intel's quarterly outlook beats Street

(Reuters) - Intel Corp forecast quarterly revenue above Wall Street's expectations, defying concerns that the growing popularity of tablets and a shaky economy are eating into demand for personal computers.




Intel said revenue in the current quarter would be $14.7 billion, plus or minus $500 million. Analysts on average had expected current-quarter revenue of $14.23 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.



Intel's processors are used in 80 percent of the world's PCs but the company has failed to gain traction in mobile gadgets like Apple Inc's iPad and Google Inc's Android smartphones. It also increasingly depends on China and other emerging markets to make up for weak sales in the United States and Europe.



GAAP net income in the third quarter was $3.5 billion, up 17 percent. Earnings per share were 65 cents.



The world's leading chipmaker said non-GAAP revenue in the third quarter was $14.3 billion, up 29 percent and higher than the $13.87 billion expected on average by analysts, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.



Shares of Intel rose 2.6 percent in extended trade after closing up 0.52 percent at $23.40.



(This story corrects GAAP vs Non-GAAP in the fourth paragraph.)






(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Editing by Richard Chang)

Fall 2011 Move-in Ready Package

Purchase a home by 10.31.11

and we’ll add our move-in ready package for FREE*

•Stainless Steel Refrigerator

•Washer & Dryer

•Blinds

*With full price offer. See the site agent for specific details as products may vary between neighborhoods and are subject to availability.

Living in Oregon…According to Jeff Foxworthy

THIS IS WHAT JEFF FOXWORTHY HAS TO SAY ABOUT ‘LIVING IN OREGON’…




•If someone in a Home Depot store offers you assistance and they don’t work there, you live in Oregon.

•If you’ve worn shorts, sandals and a parka at the same time, you live in Oregon.

•If you’ve had a lengthy telephone conversation with someone who dialed the wrong number, you live in Oregon.

•If you measure distance in hours, you live in Oregon.

•If you know several people who have hit a deer more than once, you live in Oregon.

•If you have switched from ‘heat’ to ‘A/C’ and back again in the same day, you live in Oregon.

•If you install security lights on your house and garage but leave both doors unlocked, you live in Oregon.

•If you can drive 75 mph through 2 feet of snow during a raging blizzard without flinching, you live in Central, Southern or Eastern Oregon.

•If you design your kid’s Halloween costume to fit over a 2 layers of clothes or under a raincoat, you live in Oregon.

•If driving is better in the winter because the potholes are filled with snow and ice, you live in Oregon.

•If you know all 4 seasons: almost winter, winter, still winter, and road construction, you live in Oregon.

•If you feel guilty throwing aluminum cans or paper in the trash, you live in Oregon.

•If you know more than 10 ways to order coffee, you live in Oregon.

•If you know more people who own boats than air conditioners, you live in Oregon.

•If you stand on a deserted corner in the rain waiting for the “Walk” signal, you live in Oregon.

•If you consider that if it has no snow or has not recently erupted, it is not a real mountain, you live in Oregon.

•If you can taste the difference between Starbucks, Seattle’s Best, and Dutch Bros, you live in Oregon.

•If you know the difference between Chinook, Coho and Sockeye salmon, you live in Oregon.

•If you know how to pronounce Sequim, Puyallup, Clatskanie, Issaquah, Oregon, Umpqua, Yakima and Willamette, you live in Oregon.

•If you consider swimming an indoor sport, you live in Oregon.

•If you know that Boring is a city and not just a feeling, you live in Oregon.

•If you can tell the difference between Japanese, Chinese and Thai food, you live in Oregon.

•If you never go camping without waterproof matches and a poncho, you live in Oregon.

•If you have actually used your mountain bike on a mountain, you live in Oregon.

•If you think people who use umbrellas are either wimps or tourists, you live in Oregon.

•If you buy new sunglasses every year, because you cannot find the old ones after such a long time, you live in Oregon.

•If you actually understand these jokes and forward them to all your OREGON friends, you live or have lived in Oregon.

Back From Vacation

My Brother And Me At The Top Of Our Climb

Even with how busy it has been here at Arbor Pass, I needed to spend some time visiting my family in California. My mom is sick and really felt lead to see her. So my brother paid for my plane ticket to California, where I am originally from. My payment back to my brother was a 30 mile bike ride with 15 miles of it up hill. My brother lost his left leg in a car accident when he was in high school. He now loves to cycle not letting his disability slow him down at all.

Well, I am back and ready to work.

Last Home at Arbor Crossing is Sold!

Last Home At Arbor Crossing

Last Home at Arbor Crossing!

$154,900

716 NW Newstead Terrace: Windsor Classic Package, stainless steel Whirlpool appliances with gas range, wood laminate floors on entire main level, walnut cabinets with bronze knobs, granite counter tops with full height diagonal tile backsplash, Hunter Douglas blinds, corner unit with tall ceilings & lots of light & attached garage.

Pumpkin Time

Do you believe that fall is just around the corner? Now this is my wife's favorite time. She loves the leaves turning, getting costumes and candy for the kids. We always make it to a pumpkin patch. Below is a list of places where you can get your pumpkin.



■Bella Organic Portland Pumpkin Farm, September 3-October 31, NW Portland

■Fazio Farms, dates TBD, NE Portland

■The Flower Farmer, September 24-October 31, Canby

■Kruger’s Farm, September 23-October 31, Sauvie Island

■Lake View Farms, North Plains

■Lee Farms Pumpkin Patch, Tualatin

■Liepold Farms Harvest Festival, October 1-31, Boring

■Philip Foster Farm Cider Squeeze, September 24, Eagle Creek

■Plumper Pumpkin Patch, September 17-October 31, NW Portland

■The Pumpkin Patch, September-October 31, Sauvie Island

■Roloff Farms, October 1-30, Hillsboro

■Smith Berry Barn Apple Festival, October 15-16, Hillsboro

■Squishing of the Squash & Howloween, October 28-30, Oregon Zoo (Portland)

■West Coast Giant Pumpkin Regatta, October 22, Tualatin

10 Years

Where were you on 9/11 10 yeas ago? I was getting ready for work when I heard the news from my mom. I turned on the TV and couldn't believe what had happen. My work (in California) was in a building that had Stanley Morgan Dean Witter as its main tenant. When I got to work they told me the devastation. Their company occupied an entire floor of one of the buildings of the Twin Towers. Fortunately the floor was under remodeling and most of their colleagues were not there.

I remember thinking, how can a human drive a plane into a building. How can a city deal with so much tragedy? What will this do to our country, make it stronger or divide us more?

You see my wife and I planned a trip to NY months before 9/11. We thought about canceling the trip. I called NY's box office where we ordered our tickets for a Broadway play. I asked them if I should cancel the tickets, she said "NO!" That would only hurt their local economy more. So we ventured out.

With a heavy heart we boarded the plane to New York. It was strange, flying for the 1st time since the attacks. Security was crazy about checking every bag and every person. I thought about the people that were on all 4 planes the terrorists high jacked. What went through the passengers minds, especially flight 93 who knew what was going on with the Twin Towers? I imagined me on that fateful flight calling my wife telling her I would not be home for dinner. When we finally got to New York City, we could smell the awful smell of the buildings still smoldering. The streets were wet to keep down the dust of the dump trucks hauling debris. New York City is known for its rudeness, not when we were there. They welcomed us with open arms. God Bless America was every where. You could see sheets saying things like, "I Love NY, City Of Heroes."

Probably the most shocking thing I saw was the dump trucks lined up. One had the words: Air Craft Parts Only. Something that should never be part of a building. It was an experience that will forever stay in my mind.

I love the slogan, "9/11, Never Forget." That is exactly what we should never do, forget!

Big Boy

Here is a picture of my son on his very 1st day of school. Arbor Custom Homes was so nice to let me take the morning off to walk my son to school. I am so proud of him.

Conversion Is Done



Before



After



Our office has been converted into 4 nice garages. Although not quite as pleasing to the eyes, much more practical. We even have 2 of our brand new homeowners living in their new homes. Congrats!

Street Of Dream Home Is Sold!

Bon Voyage to our 2011 NW Natural Street of Dreams home, Chateau Marseille – SOLD today!!!!




Congratulations to the lucky new home owners!!

7 Deadly Sins Of Overpricing

Most experts would advise that the best way to increase your
odds of a successful sale is to price your home at fair market

value. But, as logical as this advice sounds, for many sellers it is

still tempting to tack a few percentage points onto the price to

"leave room to negotiate". To avoid this temptation, let's take a

look at the seven deadly sins of overpricing:

1. Appraisal Problems

Even if you do find a buyer willing to pay an inflated price, the fact

is over 90% of buyers use some kind of financing to pay for their

home purchase. If your home won't appraise for the purchase

price the sale will likely fail.

7 Deadly Sins of Overpricing

2. No Showings

Today's sophisticated home buyers are well educated about the real estate market. If your home is overpriced they

won't bother looking at it, let alone make you an offer.

3. Branding Problems

When a new listing hits the market, every agent quickly checks the property out to see if it's a good fit for their

clients. If your home is branded as "overpriced", reigniting interest may take drastic measures.

4. Selling the Competition

Overpricing helps your competition. How? You make their lower prices seem like bargains. Nothing is worse than

watching your neighbors put up a sold sign.

5. Stagnation

The longer your home sits on the market, the more likely it is to become stigmatized or stale. Have you ever seen a

property that seems to be perpetually for sale? Do you ever wonder - What's wrong with that house?

6. Tougher Negotiations

Buyers who do view your home may negotiate harder because the home has been on the market for a longer

period of time and because it is overpriced compared to the competition.

7. Lost Opportunities

You will lose a percentage of buyers who are outside of your price point. These are buyers who are looking in the

price range that the home will eventually sell for but don't see the home because the price is above their pre-set

budget.

Most buyers look at 10-15 homes before making a buying decision. Because of this, setting a competitive price

relative to the competition is an essential component to a successful marketing

Street of Dreams Update

Beautiful Days At Arbor Pass

Destruction Begins Of The Old Sales Office

NW Natural Street Of Dreams

Sales Office Moving

Two things that I observed today. One, rain and two the sales office is being demolished. I can't believe that it is the middle of July and it is raining like it is March. I also can't believe that we are demolishing our sales office and converting it to garages.

With the change of interior features and changes in floorplans, it is time to say goodbye to our old models. I say old models, because we have brand new models that will be up and running in 2 weeks. I am excited for how smart they are laid out. So, come by and see the progress of the garage conversion and check out the new models.

Oh, I almost forgot, although we have 2 models sold, we still have 4 available. Now is the chance to buy an Arbor Model.

Oregon College Football Schedule

I Am Back

For those of you that don't know me, my name is Christopher Korenthal and I am the new Community Manager for Arbor Pass. Just over a year ago I was at Arbor Pass, but went to start another neighborhood. Now that the new neighborhood that I started is up and running, I am back to serve you here at Arbor Pass. I look forward to seeing you here, so please stop by!

Red Means Stop for Right Turns Too

Effective February 11, 2011, illegal right turns on red (such as rolling stops) will be added to the other red light traffic violations enforced at Photo Red Light intersections. Drivers who do not come to a complete stop at a red light before turning right will now be issued a citation when their violation is caught on camera at a Photo Red Light intersection. The Photo Light Intersections will include: Beaverton Hillsdale Highway/Griffith Drive, Hall Blvd/Scholls Ferry Road, Cedar Hills Blvd/walker Rd, and Allen Blvd/Lombard Ave. Keeping the citizens safe on roadways is a high priority for the Police Department. The goal of the Department's Photo Red Light Enforcement Program is to reduce violations, crashes and injuries. The department will now enforce right turn on red traffic violations at the intersections above mentioned. I was not sure how advertised this information was, so I thought it would be important for our Arbor Custom Home families to be aware of the new laws. It is still legal to make a right turn on a red signal once you have come to a complete stop at the stop line. So slow down and make sure to come to a complete stop.

What is an FHA Loan?

An FHA loan, is an Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance backed mortgage loan which are provided by FHA-approved lenders. FHA insured loans are a type of federal assistance and have historically allowed lower income buyers to borrow money for the purchase of a home that they would not otherwise be able to afford. to obtain mortgage insurance from the Federal Housing Administration, a mortgage insurance premium (MIP) equal to a percentage of the loan amount at closing is required, and is normally financed by the lender and paid to FHA on the borrowers behalf. Depending on the loan to value ratio, there may be a monthly premium as well. Come in to Arbor Pass this weekend, and make an appointment to speak to Adam, our finance expert from Wells Fargo, to see if this would be a good fit for you? We are here Monday-Friday 12-5pm and 10-5pm Saturday and Sunday.

PLANET HOME: Conscious Choices for Cleaning & Greening the World You Care About the Most
events - public events
When: Wednesday, January 26th 2011 10:30 am – 12 pm
Where: The Warehouse, 3434 SE Milwaukie Ave, Portland, OR 97202
PLANET HOME: Conscious Choices for Cleaning & Greening the World You Care About the Most
Alexandra Zissu, author of PLANET HOME, will be in Portland for this FREE special event to talk about ways to make conscious choices when cleaning your most cherished environment -- your home. All Portlanders are invited to join us for a chance to connect with your community and Alexandra for this informative and fun event. Enjoy complimentary food and beverages and an eco-friendly gift will be available for registered attendees. Please register as soon as possible using this link: http://planethomepdx.eventbrite.com/ Author and green living expert Alexandra Zissu offers comprehensive yet simple - and practical - green tips for any budget. Our everyday choices can have a tremendous impact - on the environment and our health. Did you know switching from hot to cold water when doing laundry saves 90% of the total energy cost, reduces indoor air pollution and is better for the clothes? Zissu suggests many easy changes and highlights common mistakes we all make. Newbies will learn to go greener faster and devotees will pick up insights and ideas to hone their eco-approach. Walk out inspired, empowered and with a heightened sense of how interconnected we all are in our shared planet home.Alexandra Zissu is a green living expert, environmental health journalist, eco consultant, speaker, mom and the author of The Conscious Kitchen and co-author of The Complete Organic Pregnancy and Planet Home.
REGISTER AT http://planethomepdx.eventbrite.com/
The Warehouse is located at 3434 SE Milwaukie Avenue, Portland, OR 97202.More info at http://www.portlandgreenparenting.com/

The Models are FOR SALE.....

We are so excited, our models are moving. We have started construction on two new buildings here at the Pass. We have 8 new condo's that are available in the new buildings. The buildings are in great locations and right by the pool and clubhouse. This is a great time to buy an Arbor Custom Home at Arbor Pass. The units are early enough in the construction stage, that you can pick out your options. The other exciting news is that we are moving our models to one of the new buildings. That means that the models are for sale. Whenever people come through, they always want to pick the same features that the model offers. Well here is your chance. Come in this weekend and view the models and see which one you like???? It is a great time to buy an Arbor Custom Home. The interest rates are still very low, and so are the price of our condos. I hope to see you this weekend, and Adam from Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Arbor's preferred lender, would love to make an appointment to meet with you to see which plan would be a good fit. Don't forget about the Oregon Bond, Adam would be happy to see if you qualify for that. Happy home hunting.

NEW YEARS INCENTIVE FOR FIRST TIME HOME BUYERS!!!

Good news for first time home buyers. Oregon Bond has been able to approve funds to bring back its offering for 1st time home buyers. there are two options that buyers can take advantage of. The first one is Rate Advantage Home Loan: A qualified borrower will get the lowest fixed rate possible to maximize their home purchasing power. Rates, on this option are 3.875%. the second option is the Cash Advantage Home Loan: A borrower will get a low, fixed interest rate of their home loan along with cash assistance equal to 3% of their loan amount. The cash assistance will help to reduce the total cash they need to close the loan. Rates, on this option, are 4.25%. The buyer must meet certain qualifications, which are as follows: Buyer must be a 1st time home buyer, be an Oregonian, live in the residence, may not have been discharged from a bankruptcy within the past two years, prior to closing the loan. There are also income limits, as well as purchase price limits. There are eligible property restrictions. There may also be a recapture fee, if the buyer sell the house before a certain required time frame. This is just a jist of what the program restrictions are. Please come by Arbor Pass, and meet with either Krisiti, the managing agent at our site, or our preferred lender Wells Fargo, to get specific information regarding this exciting new First Time Home Buyers incentive. Great time to buy an Arbor Home....

What is the impact of raising interest rates when buying a home?

Buyers ask me daily, "have we hit bottom, as far as the price of homes?" I am not sure the answer to that, however I do know that the interest rate increase affects the buyer just as much as the price of a home. If you are one of those buyers that is waiting to see if we have hit bottom, be careful. You should be concerned about the monthly cost as well as the price. We all want the best value possible whenever you purchase something. However, when buying real estate, the best value is not determined by price alone. Value is determined by price and financing costs. You really need to take both into consideration when purchasing a home. Arbor Custom homes is partnered up with Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, and have an amazing team that keeps updated on all that is happening in lending. If you want to find out how the interest rates affect your decision come into the Arbor Pass sales office, and we can set up an appointment with our lender, Adam and show you options for your future home.

Time for Reflection!!!!

As 2010 comes to an end, it is always a good time to reflect. This year has been a very exciting, but challenging year for me professionally. It has been so wonderful coming to work for Arbor Custom Homes. I feel so fortunate, in this economy, to have had such an exciting opportunity. I love it!!!! I really enjoy the people I get to work with. Kristi, the sales office manager is awesome to work with. She loves being the property manager at Arbor Pass, and is so enthused to teach me everything she knows about the condo's. We have had such fun working with buyers and meeting potential buyers. The real estate market has been challenging, but the Arbor team works so well together to make our buyers excited about the buying process. I hope that 2012 brings peace, joy and health and happiness. Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year.

Interested Rates have been going up. What are you waiting for?????

Interest rates are heading north for the holidays.......The interest rates have gone up about .5% this month. Its hard to say if they will come back down, or if we have hit our rock bottom? Do you realize how much this affects a buyer when the rates increase? With the rate increase just .5% this month, that has been a 5% loss in buying power. That means if you were qualified to buy a $200,00 home, you could now only afford a $190,000 home. So that means the buyer will be making the same mortgage payment on a home that is $10,000 less. The good new is that even with the rates increasing, they are still at record lows. In tracking rates over the last five Decembers, we are still the lowest that we have seen. In 2005 the rates were 6.27. So what are buyers waiting for? I think if you are ready to buy a home and waiting to see "what happens" you may miss the boat????? If you are serious about purchasing something you should speak with a lender as soon as possible to see what your options are? Arbor Pass is partnered up with Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, and I work personally with Adam Ansteth. He knows the neighborhood at Arbor Pass and he has proven time and again how good he is at his job. Even thought we are at the last few weeks of the year, this is a GREAT time to buys a new home. What a way to start 2011. Happy Holidays and Cheers to you.

Arbor Custom homes Oregonian Article

There was an interesting article in the Oregonian last week about Arbor Custom Homes. The article had an encouraging message from one of our owners Wally Remmers. He was speaking at a banquet to subcontractors and suppliers of Arbor's. Wally is confident of a continued rebound in the year ahead. It was exciting to see that Arbor Custom Homes is going to be building around 350 new homes in the coming year. He admits that times have been very challenging as one of the last standing local builders in the Portland area. Arbor has taken some opportunities that are not part our their "normal" business model. I also like what Wally said about the downturn in the market "has thinned out the industry to the real players" The Arbor Crossing neighborhood was specifically recognized as an opportunity for buyers to take advantage of the significant price erosion in the Portland housing market. The pass currently has condos priced in the $209,000 price range. If you have the opportunity to read the article in full it was in the business section December 3, 2010. The article was written by Jeff Manning.

Fun Portland Activities during the Holidays

There are so many fun things to do around Portland during the holidays. Some of these activities have been traditions that my family have continued over the years since I was a child. We always have a great time cutting down our Christmas tree. There are quite a few tree farms close to the Arbor Crossing and Arbor Pass neighborhoods. Some of the ones my family has gone to before are:
Helvetia Christmas Tree Farm: 12814 NW Bishop Rd. Hillsboro, Or 97124.
Andy's Tree Farm: 14713 NW Germantown Rd. Portland, Oregon 97231.
Parry's U Cut Tree Farm: 45627 NW David Hill Rd. Forest Grove, Oregon 97116.
Baggenstos Farm: 20200 NW Murphy Rd. North Plains, Oregon 97133.
Hagg's Tree Farm: 18265 SW McCormick Hill Rd. Hillsboro, Oregon 97123.
Besides the family outing cutting down our tree, we usually try to do something festive around town. Peacock Lane has always been a favorite, whether we walk down the street and enjoy a hot chocolate, or stay in the warm car and drive down the beautifully lit street. The Queen Anne Victorian Mansion is beautiful this time of year. The Portland Zoo also has a light festival that is fun for the whole family, and one of Portland's biggest celebration is the Festival of Lights at the Grotto. Take some time over the holidays to slow down and enjoy spending time with your family and try one of theses great places to spend a day. with the family. Happy Holidays to you and your family. From Arbor Pass and Arbor Crossing.

Newest member to Arbor Pass

My name is Kara DuLong, and I am the newest team member out at Arbor Pass/Arbor Crossing. I will be assisting Kristi and am so excited to be part of the Arbor Custom Home family. I have been with Arbor Custom Home since the end of summer, but have been permanently place here at Arbor Pass/Arbor Crossing. I have lived in the Portland area my entire life, and graduated college from the University of Oregon. I am married and have two children, they are both in elementary school. When I am not here at work, you can find me at one of my kids soccer, baseball, football, or basketball games....If you have a chance come by a say hello, I would love to meet you.

Arbor homes makes a difference

Arbor is continuing to make a difference! Not only is Arbor building strong in this down economy but they have also added many build techniques that make your brand new home more energy efficient which saves you money but also cuts down on environmental impact as well. Good for you..... good for the world! Arbor is now building to Earth Star advantage guidelines.
Watch this short video below to see all the things Arbor does above & beyond other builders!
This is why many Arbor home owners buy another Arbor when they move to the next step in their lives.... weather it's to move into a bigger home when starting a family or moving into a smaller home once the kids have gone. Arbor builds everything from the condos here at Quatama/Orenco/Tanasbourne area up to 4,000 sq ft homes up in the Hills of the Beathany area in NW Portland.

ARBOR WINS BUILDER OF THE YEAR

We are very proud to announce that Arbor Custom Homes has been selected as the recipient of the 2010 Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland’s “Builder Member of the Year” award. The HBA’s Nominating Committee evaluated several nominees based on criteria in four principal areas of service: Support of the industry, Leadership in the HBA, involvement in the HBA, and community involvement. The committee came to the conclusion that Arbor Custom Homes was most deserving of this year’s award.

Arbor will be recognized and presented this award at the HBA Builders Ball on Saturday evening November 20th. This kind of recognition is not possible without the leadership Wally and Dennis provide and all of the help from our team!

Congratulations!!

Orenco station homes

The Orenco station area in Hillsboro is one of the most desirable areas to live in. Besides the fantastic restaurants, local specialty shops, close to the MAX, & a great farmers market found in this little charming Orenco area it is also very affordable right now to live close by! Imagine you work at Intel like many of our home owners do, every morning when it's time to go to work all you have to do is get right on the MAX and be to work in less than 10 mins. Besides being convenient for getting to work everyday also imagine how great it would be to be able to take the MAX to Blazer games, or Timbers games, or even just to go downtown Portland and not have to worry about parking or being able to have a drink because you won't have to drive. Here at Arbor Pass & Arbor Crossing we not only have quality built homes with energy savings craftsmanship but also stunning finishes and the lifestyle you are looking for! We have brand new home starting at only $119,900 & we only have 3 that are move in ready right now!

HOMES NOW STARTING AT $119,900

Very exciting that these brand new condos are now starting at $119,900!

Stop by the sales office from 10-6pm weekends or 12-6pm weekdays for more information & to see some of our model homes!

Arbor Custom Homes gives back!

Arbor Custom homes builds a replica playhouse for charity. Click the link to read about it on OregonLive!

The Arbor Pass pool is open!

What a perfect weekend for swimming, lounging and just kicking back! Come live at Arbor Pass and enjoy the Arbor lifestyle!

Retail sales show surprising gain in February

Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, On Friday March 12, 2010, 4:30 pm EST
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Retail sales posted a surprising increase in February as consumers refused to let snowstorms stop them from stepping up purchases for everything from clothes to appliances. The improvement provided hope that the recovery from the Great Recession is gaining momentum.

Some economists cautioned that spending increases will remain modest as long as wages stay flat and job creation weak. But others said the fourth gain in retail sales in five months meant consumers are starting to spend with more confidence.

"This is more than a one-month wonder," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh. "This is telling us that consumers, who had been tightening their belts throughout the recession, have now loosened them a notch."

For February, sales rose 0.3 percent, the Commerce Department said Friday. That surpassed expectations of a 0.2 percent decline.

The overall gain was held back by a 2 percent decline in auto sales, partly reflecting the recall problems at Toyota. Weakness in autos also caused a downward revision in January retail sales. They were reduced to an increase of just 0.1 percent, down from the 0.5 percent originally reported.

But outside of autos, sales rose a strong 0.8 percent in February. That was far better than the 0.1 percent rise economists had expected. And for January, excluding autos, sales gained 0.5 percent, just slightly below the 0.6 percent initial estimate.

Some analysts expressed concern about whether the spending gains can be sustained, given that unemployment remains high -- 9.7 percent in February -- and consumer confidence shaky. A separate report Friday showed that consumer confidence dipped to 72.5 in early March, down slightly from a February reading of 73.5, according to a Reuters-University of Michigan survey.

"Weak jobs growth, low wages growth and tight credit mean that any further acceleration in consumption growth is unlikely," Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note.

Prospects would improve if businesses, which have shed 8.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, start rehiring laid-off workers. That would give households the incomes they need to support spending growth.

Economists said spending in both January and February likely gained support from higher tax refunds and tax credits paid by the government during the current tax filing season. Those increases reflect some of the tax relief included in the $787 billion economic stimulus package Congress passed last year.

Some analysts said the February retail sales report made them more confident that consumer spending -- which accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity -- will be enough to support moderate economic growth this year of around 3 percent.

"We needed the consumer to step up because that is the biggest part of the economy," said Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Capital Markets. "This retail sales report should go a long way toward alleviating fears that we might slip back into a recession."

The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, began growing again last summer. That indicated the recession had ended. GDP growth surged at a 5.9 percent annual rate in the October-December quarter. About two-thirds of that surge came from a rise in manufacturing to supply goods for businesses that had let their stockpiles dwindle.

Consumer spending actually slowed a bit in the fourth quarter: It grew at an annual rate of just 1.7 percent. But some analysts said that, based on the January and February retail sales, consumer spending could strengthen in the current quarter and support a GDP gain of around 3 percent this quarter.

The February retail sales report showed widespread improvement. Sales at general merchandise stores, the category that includes department stores and big discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., rose 1 percent after a 1.3 percent rise in January.

Sales at appliance stores were up 3.7 percent. Sales at hardware stores rose by 0.5 percent. Furniture sales gained 0.7 percent.

Restaurants and bars enjoyed a 0.9 percent advance, their biggest gain in nearly two years. It suggested that snowbound Americans headed out to eat to get a break from their homes.

Some analysts had suspected that the February retail sales report could offer a positive surprise, given encouraging news last week from the nation's big retail chains. The International Council of Shopping Centers had reported that sales jumped 3.7 percent in February compared with a year ago. That marked the third straight increase and showed broad strength across all corners of retailing, indicating that consumers are starting to crawl back to where they had typically shopped before the Great Recession.

Shoppers shrugged off snowstorms to visit an array of merchants, from luxury retailer Nordstrom Inc. to middlebrow Macy's Inc. to discounter Target Corp. All three chains reported solid sales increases that beat analysts expectations. Another encouraging sign the reports showed was that shoppers are becoming more willing to pay full price, instead of focusing only on deeply discounted items.

During the height of the recession, shoppers, nervous about their evaporating stock portfolios and their jobs, had fled to discounters and cheaper brands. But even though extreme frugality is starting to thaw, shoppers remain cautious.

Zain Raj, global practice leader of Euro RSCG's retail brands division, noted that customers are starting to return to some of their brands and stores, but not for everything.

"Customers are picking and choosing where they're trading up," he said.

In a separate report, Commerce said business inventories were basically unchanged in January. Total business sales rose 0.6 percent, the eighth straight monthly increase.

AP Retail Writer Anne D'Innocenzio in New York contributed to this report.

U.S. Economy: Growth Jumps 5.7%, Fastest Pace in Six Years

By Timothy R. Homan

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy expanded in the fourth quarter at the fastest pace in six years as factories cranked up assembly lines, indicating the recovery may be strong enough to be weaned from government support.

The dollar rallied as the data signaled the momentum generated by the world’s largest economy last quarter will carry into the new year. Rising investment in equipment and software is boosting sales at companies including Intel Corp. and may help bring the jobless rate down from close to a 26-year high as employers add staff to meet demand.

“We are getting on to something that is pretty sustainable,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, who correctly forecast the gain in GDP. “Both consumers and businesses are beginning to increase spending. To get validation, we need to see a return in hiring, which we think we are going to get over the next few months.”

Consumer spending, which comprises about 70 percent of the economy, rose at a 2 percent pace following a 2.8 percent increase in the previous three months. Economists projected a 1.8 percent gain, according to the survey median. Efforts to rebuild depleted inventories contributed 3.4 percentage points to GDP, the most in two decades.

The dollar strengthened 0.7 percent to $1.3867 per euro. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2 percent to 1,082.33 at 12:10 p.m. in New York after gaining as much as 1.1 percent.

For all of 2009, the economy shrank 2.4 percent, the worst single-year performance since 1946. Household purchases dropped 0.6 percent last year, the biggest decrease since 1974.

Intel, the world’s largest chipmaker, posted its biggest quarterly revenue in more than a year last quarter, a sign the computer industry has emerged from last year’s global recession.

“My expectation for 2010 is that we’re going to see robust unit growth,” Chief Financial Officer Stacy Smith said in an interview this month. “The consumer segments of the market will stay pretty strong, and I do believe we’re going to see a resurgence in PC client sales.”

Purchases of equipment and software increased at a 13 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the most since 2006, today’s Commerce Department report showed. The gain helped offset a 15 percent drop in commercial construction, leaving total business investment up 2.9 percent over the past three months.

White House economic adviser Christina Romer said today’s GDP report is “the most positive news to date” on the economy.

Romer, chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, said that while economic growth is a “necessary first step for job growth” the government’s “focus must remain on getting Americans back to work.”

Obama this week said job creation will be the “number one focus in 2010.” Speaking during his first State of the Union address, Obama called on Congress to deliver a new jobs bill to his desk.

Payrolls fell by 85,000 last month after a 4,000 gain in November that was the first increase in almost two years. The U.S. has lost 7.2 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007, the most of any slowdown in the post-World War II era. The jobless rate held at 10 percent in December.

The Federal Reserve this week repeated a pledge to keep interest rates low for “an extended period” to bring down unemployment while also raising its assessment of the economy and repeating a decision to end purchases of $1.25 trillion of mortgage debt by March 31. Policy makers said business investment “appears to be picking up.”

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke was confirmed for a second four-year term yesterday by the Senate with record opposition as some lawmakers criticized the central bank for doing more to help Wall Street than average Americans.

A Labor Department report today showed wages and benefits rose 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter, capping their smallest annual increase on record.

Gains in production last quarter stemmed the slide in inventories. Stockpiles dropped at a $33.5 billion annual pace following a $139.2 billion decline the previous three months. Inventories declined at a record $160.2 billion pace in the second quarter.



Business Barometer



The expansion is carrying into the new year, a report from the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. indicated today. The group said its business barometer climbed to 61.5, the highest level since November 2005, from 58.7 last month. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion.

A gauge of consumer confidence climbed in January to the highest level in two years. The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment rose to 74.4 from December’s 72.5.

In other areas of the economy, today’s GDP report showed a smaller trade gap contributed 0.5 percentage point to fourth- quarter growth, while government spending was little changed, dropping at a 0.2 percent pace.

Residential construction climbed at a 5.7 percent rate last quarter after expanding at a 19 percent pace in the previous three months.

Inflation held below the Fed’s long-term forecast. The central bank’s preferred price gauge, which is tied to consumer spending and strips out food and energy costs, rose at a 1.4 percent annual pace following a 1.2 percent increase in the prior quarter.

The GDP price gauge climbed at a 0.6 percent pace, less than the 1.3 percent median forecast of economists surveyed.

Today’s GDP report is the first for the quarter and will be revised in February and March as more information becomes available.

Ten Cities To Go From Renting To Buying

The U.S. government has pushed hard to make homeowners out of one-third of Americans who still rent their homes. It introduced and later extended a tax credit for first-time home buyers, and has kept federal interest rates at their lowest levels since the 1940s.

Market conditions are such that now is a particularly good time for some renters to take the hint.

In Portland, San Francisco, Minneapolis and Washington, D.C., the premium to buy--the spread between what you'd spend on renting and what you'd pay each month for a mortgage--is far narrower now than its 15-year average. And economists predict a significant home-price hike in five years. So upgrading will cost much less than usual, and home buyers are likely to get a good return on their investment.

Note that buying isn't necessarily cheaper than renting in these metro areas. In fact, it often remains a more expensive proposition. But for those determined to own, that investment is a better one now than it normally is.

Take San Francisco. To live here has always required a hefty bump in monthly costs from renting; it's normally an incredible 296% more expensive to buy than lease a home, and the city's residents know this. That's why 42% of them stick to renting. Even though in the third quarter of 2009 the premium was still in the triple digits--233%--it had shrunk by 63 percentage points from the above 15-year average. As with the other cities we've highlighted, you're not getting nearly as good a deal by renting as you might have just a few years ago.

"Rents are falling, but not nearly as rapidly as home prices," says Ron Witten, founder of Dallas-based Witten Advisors, an apartment market consulting firm. "Part of the reason is a shift away from home ownership toward renting," he says, in part because mortgages have become harder for many to obtain.

To find cities where it's a good time to go from renting to buying, we used data from Witten Advisors, which calculated the premium to buy for 42 Metropolitan Statistical Areas across the country using data from the U.S. Census, the National Association of Realtors and a blended average of fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (which oversees and regulates lenders). We compared the premium in the third quarter of 2009 with the average premium over the last 15 years to find the biggest drops.

We also wanted to pinpoint markets where home buying is a smart investment, so we factored in the five-year forecast in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index from Moody's ( MCO - news - people )Economy.com. The cities on our list have some of the biggest discounts on the premium to buy coupled with big projected increases in home prices over the next five years.

One major market we didn't look at is New York City, another spot where rents have softened less than home prices. Witten Advisors doesn't track the metro area because accurate historical data on rental costs there is exceedingly difficult to obtain.

Portland, Ore., makes our list for much the same reason that San Francisco does: It's a picturesque, culture-driven city with good local services and amenities. The city is still not particularly cheap for buyers--but it's cheaper than normal.

Visit The Forbes.com Digg ChannelA family hoping to put down roots there would normally pay a 62% premium to go from renting to buying. In the third quarter of 2009, however, that premium shrank by 16 percentage points. At the same time, Moody's Economy.com anticipates that home prices will jump 19% over the next five years. That's partly because, like San Francisco, Portland has strict government limitations on building and a coastal location that keep sprawl in check.

"Portland has one of the most controlled environments in the country in terms of development rights," says Stuart Gabriel, director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate at the UCLA Anderson School of Management. "Those supply constraints will push prices up."

Jobs Stability
The presence of jobs--along with strong industries that will keep generating new ones--is a big factor in keeping demand for homes, and therefore home prices, high. The weak national economy has helped reduce the premium to buy for the time being, but where the labor market is relatively healthy, home prices are predicted to shoot up.

In Minneapolis, for example, where large companies including Target ( TGT - news - people ) and General Mills ( GIS - news - people ) have their corporate headquarters (and there's a large university system), home buyers will only pay 14% more than if they were renting (24 percentage points lower than average), and home prices should climb by 15% in five years.

Similarly, in Washington, D.C., government jobs are plentiful, and anticipated to stay that way. The 6.1% unemployment rate here is well below the national average, which is partly why Moody's anticipates a five-year jump in home prices of 15%. And, at the moment, the premium to buy is 20 percentage points lower than its usual 57%.

Of course, whether buying or renting is best is ultimately an individual choice, and one driven by a lot more than map coordinates. When subprime lending was rampant, many without the means to buy were encouraged to do so anyway--and it's no secret how that turned out.

"If there's anything we should have learned from this housing cycle, it's that the decision to buy or rent ought to be a personal lifestyle decision," says Witten. "In part, it's a question about, 'Do I want to be a homeowner' in general, and specifically, 'Do I want to be a homeowner now, with this economic uncertainty?'"

Francesca Levy, 01.21.10, 04:50 PM EST

Stocks strengthen on Fed's economic assessment

By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writers , On Wednesday January 27, 2010, 3:40 pm
NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market turned higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve issued a more upbeat assessment of the economy.

Major stock indexes had fallen before the Fed released its statement following a two-day meeting on interest rates, then advanced as investors digested the central bank's statement. Treasury prices reversed direction and fell after the statement as investors withdrew money from safe haven holdings.

The Fed said it believes that "economic activity has continued to strengthen" since its last meeting in December. However, the Fed did not repeat its assertion that the housing market is improving.

The Fed said it is leaving interest rates near zero, as expected, but also that Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig has voted against the decision to keep rates low.

Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group in Colonial Heights, Va., said Hoenig's vote signals the central bank is moving closer to boosting rates.

"That means there are a couple of people who feel like that the economy is getting better at a nice rate that no longer warrants these exceptionally low rates," he said.

Stocks had fallen ahead of the report as a 7.6 percent drop in sales of new homes in December brought concerns about the economy.

In late afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 44.14, or 0.4 percent, to 10,238.43. It had been down 40 ahead of the Fed's announcement.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 5.43, or 0.5 percent, to 1,097.60, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 17.00, or 0.8 percent, to 2,220.73.

Stocks had closed lower five of the past seven days.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.64 percent from 3.63 percent late Tuesday.

The dollar rose against most other major currencies, while gold fell.

Scott Marcouiller, senior equity market strategist Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis, said the Fed's statement that it is slowing its purchase of mortgage-backed securities suggests the central bank believes the U.S. housing market is improving.

The Fed said it expects to complete the purchase of $1.25 trillion in agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion in agency debt by the end of the first quarter.

"Once we settle in here, the market will like this," he added. "This (statement) tells me that they're comfortable with how the economy is progressing, even though they didn't come right out and say that."

Reassurance from the Fed couldn't erase all of investors' worries about the economy. Caterpillar Inc. hurt the Dow industrials after the equipment maker issued a cautious forecast. The stock fell $3.54, or 6.3 percent, to $52.31.

Technology stocks got a boost from Apple Inc. after the company announced a tablet-style computer that looks like a large iPhone. The stock rose $3.05, or 1.5 percent, to $208.99.

The Fed's announcement was the latest event in Washington to command investors' attention.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner defended the government's rescue last year of insurance giant American International Group Inc. in hearings on Capitol Hill. Analysts said the sometimes heated exchanges between Geithner and members of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform underscored concerns that Washington would be more assertive in its dealings with Wall Street.

Geithner oversaw the bailout as head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson also testified.

Traders are also waiting to see whether Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, whose term ends Sunday, will win Senate approval for a second, four-year term.

The hearings came after President Barack Obama said last week that he would seek to limit trading by major financial institutions. That drew concerns from investors that bank profits would suffer.

Investors also will be looking to Obama's State of the Union speech Wednesday evening for clues about his plans to tighten restrictions on banks.

In other trading, crude oil fell $1.48 to $73.23 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Three stocks fell for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 978.8 million shares.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 3.97, or 0.7 percent, to 616.13.

Overseas markets fell for a second straight day on concerns about China's move to curb bank lending. The country is trying to prevent speculative bubbles and rapid inflation as its economy continues to grow quickly. A slowdown in growth in China could stunt a global economic recovery.

Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.7 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.4 percent.

Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.1 percent, Germany's DAX index lost 0.5 percent, and France's CAC-40 dropped 1.2 percent.

Liberty High senior follows in brother's footsteps with success in Intel Science Talent Search

You may ask why I have an article of a 12 grade student from Liberty High in Hillsboro. It is because Liberty High is our High School here at Arbor Pass. See how Alex McCarthy is making Liberty High proud.

By Wendy Owen, The Oregonian
January 21, 2010, 5:30PM
View full sizeTORSTEN KJELLSTRAND/The Oregonian Alex McCarthy, 18, is a semi-finalist in the national Intel Science Talent Search for his project involving solar energy, which brought him and Liberty High School $1,000. He often uses the balcony in his family's one-bedroom loft in Hillsboro for his other science projects, recently including a 7-foot construction crane that broke as he attempted to lift a slipper. HILLSBORO -- It's not uncommon for Alex McCarthy's parents to find pulleys, ropes and, occasionally, a crane dangling from the balcony circling their living room.

Eighteen-year-old Alex is driven by an insatiable curiosity about how things work. As a result, the Liberty High School senior recently was named one of five semifinalists from Oregon in the prestigious Intel Science Talent Search.

While Alex's feat is admirable in itself, he isn't the only one in his family to be ranked nationally as a young scientist.

His older brother, Brian, placed third in the nation in the 2008 Intel Science Talent Search, winning $50,000 for his work involving solar energy.

Such accomplishments might be expected in a family of engineers or chemists, but their parents are not scientists.

Their father, Brian McCarthy, is a chef specializing in vegetarian meals for Bon Appetit, which contracts with Intel. Their mother, Karen McCarthy, is finishing a bachelor's of science degree in child and family studies at Portland State University. She also works in the home department at Fred Meyer.

Low-key and humble, like their sons, the couple says they made a point of letting their boys explore what interested them. "As long as it was safe," Brian McCarthy said.

That interest was usually scientific. As youngsters, the brothers built dams and bridges in a mud hole in their backyard. Over the holidays, they launched Lego airplanes across the living room balcony from a catapult rigged with weights.

Asked what sparked his interest in science, Alex thought for a moment and said, "Legos, I would say."

In between bouts of building, they played strategic board games. Their parents kept them away from video games and social networking sites, such as Facebook. Encouraged them to read, instead.

"The family goes a long way in encouraging that desire to learn," said Milt Scholl, who teaches science and math at Liberty High School. He taught both boys and coaches Alex on the school's new robotics team as well as their Science Olympiad team.

Eventually, Alex's inquisitiveness pushed him to follow his brother in investigating solar energy. Organic solar cells are less expensive to create than the silicone cells now used, but they're not efficient, because they leak electrons generated by sunlight.

Alex determined that a layer of some type of compound might keep the electrons from leaking -- making solar energy more affordable.

He patiently drew a picture to explain the complicated project and noted that, so far, he hasn't found the right compound. But, he said, "These things don't ever really end."

Despite the work-in-progress, the Hillsboro teen's research placed him among 300 Intel Science Talent Search semifinalists from across the country. The number will be whittled to 40 finalists on Wednesday.

Those winners will receive a free week-long trip to Washington, D.C., in March to attend the Intel Science Talent Institute, which concludes with the naming of the top 10 scholarship winners and prizes ranging from $7,500 to $100,000.

The brothers developed their interest in solar energy through the Apprenticeships in Science and Engineering program, where they worked alongside graduate students in a chemistry laboratory at Portland State University. During different summers, each boy developed his own project to enhance solar cells.

"They were both extraordinary scientists: hard-working, creative and insightful," said Carl Wamser, chemistry professor at Portland State University.

Brian, 20, who is majoring in chemistry at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says his little brother has a passion for science, especially engineering.

"He seems to have this intuition for it. Even though I was two years older ... I could never do what he could with building," Brian said.

At Liberty High School, Milt Scholl described Alex, whom he's taught for four years, as very methodical in his approach to science. "It's a persistent intelligence," said Scholl, a former college professor. "That way of thinking gets him through everything."

Alex is considering mechanical engineering as his future. He plans to join his brother at MIT in the fall.

Brian has continued researching solar energy as a sophomore at MIT. Asked if he planned to partner with his younger brother to create the perfect organic solar cell, he said his research has moved away from solar cells, but he would entertain teaming up with is "best friend."

"I think we would make a good team, whether or not he would be interested I don't know."

Federal Housing Administration to raise fees

Federal Housing Administration hikes fees, tightens standards for home loans


By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer , On Tuesday January 19, 2010, 8:48 pm EST
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Housing Administration is raising fees and tightening lending standards to shore up its strapped finances and avoid a taxpayer bailout.
The government agency has seen its losses rise with the foreclosure rate. Its reserves have sunk below the minimum level required by Congress. A healthy FHA is vital for the housing market because it insures roughly 30 percent of new loans, and is the largest backer of mortgages to first-time buyers.
The changes, which will go into effect in the first half of the year, "are among the most significant steps to address risk in the agency's history," FHA Commissioner David Stevens said in a prepared statement.
The FHA does not make loans, but rather offers insurance against default. Borrowers are willing to pay for the insurance because FHA loans only require down payments of 3.5 percent of the purchase price -- and that didn't change.
The new policies, to be announced Wednesday, are designed to bring more revenue into the agency, while at the same time keeping loans available.
Under the changes, homebuyers will:
--Pay an upfront mortgage insurance premium of 2.25 percent of the total loan amount, up from the current level of 1.75 percent. A borrower taking out a $200,000 mortgage would pay a $4,500 fee, for example, rather than the current fee of $3,500. Borrowers will still be able to wrap these fees into the total amount borrowed. FHA officials also plan to ask Congress to increase the maximum annual premium that FHA can charge.
--Need a credit score of at least 580 to qualify. Many FHA lenders already require a higher score, but there had been no standard requirement across the program. Borrowers with a score lower than 580 will need a down payment of at least 10 percent.
The changes come as borrowers with loans backed by the agency have increasingly been falling into default. More than 18 percent of FHA borrowers are at least one payment behind or in foreclosure, compared with 14 percent for all loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Mortgage lenders "will find the new rules painful but necessary," said Howard Glaser, a mortgage industry consultant and former housing official during the Clinton administration.
There also have been fears that unscrupulous operators have shifted their business to the FHA after the subprime business went bust. Last week, the agency served subpoenas on 15 mortgage companies with suspiciously high default rates for FHA loans, part of a broad crackdown on dubious lenders.
The agency has already taken action against several problem lenders. One of the nation's biggest mortgage bankers, Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Co. of Ocala, Fla., was banned from the FHA program in August and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Another mortgage company, Lend America, was kicked out in November.