Fed survey: Housing, manufacturing drive recovery

Fed survey finds housing, manufacturing improvements drive early stages of recovery

In this June 17, 2009 file photo, James Sellers, left, vice president of AUS Manufacturing Co.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Improvements in housing and manufacturing are driving the early stages of the economic recovery, according to a Federal Reserve survey released Wednesday.

AP - FILE - In this June 17, 2009 file photo, James Sellers, left, vice president of AUS Manufacturing Co., ...
The Fed's latest snapshot of business conditions nationwide found "many sectors" of the economy either stabilized or logged modest improvements over the last six weeks. The pickups, though, often were from "depressed" levels of activity.
Still, the new report adds to evidence that a recovery has started from the worst recession since the 1930s. Only two of the Fed's 12 regions -- Atlanta and St. Louis -- reported weaker overall economic activity.
An $8,000 credit for first-time homebuyers boosted the housing sector. There's been concern among private economists and some lawmakers that recent gains in housing will fizzle out when the credit ends. It is slated to expire Nov. 30, although some in Congress are mulling an extension.
Meanwhile, factories increased production as businesses restocked depleted inventories. Part of that restocking was due to the now-defunct Cash for Clunkers rebate program, which caused a brief burst in car sales.
Both housing and manufacturing continued a "pattern of improvement that emerged over the summer," the Fed observed.
By contrast, the Fed said weakest link in the recovery was commercial real estate. Conditions were described as "either weak or deteriorating" across all 12 regions surveyed.
Consumer spending also remained weak, the Fed said.
Consumers, whose spending accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity, are expected to stay cautious given rising job losses, stagnant incomes and hard-to-get credit.
"Reports of gains in economic activity generally outnumber declines, but virtually every reference to improvement was qualified as either small or scattered," the Fed survey said.
For instance, Dallas cited slight improvements in residential real estate and at staffing firms. New York noted gains predominantly in manufacturing and retail. Philadelphia, Cleveland and San Francisco cited small pickups in manufacturing. Kansas City noted upticks at technology companies, while Richmond observed revenue gains at service companies.
The nation's unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September, and is expected to top 10 percent this year. Economists predict it will rise as high as 10.5 percent by the middle of next year before slowly drifting down.
Districts reported "little or no increase to either price or wage pressures," but there were some references to downward pressures, according to the survey.
In a separate report, the Labor Department found that unemployment rose in 23 states last month. While layoffs have slowed, companies remain reluctant to hire. Forty-three states reported job losses in September; only seven gained jobs.
Many analysts believe the economy started to grow again in the third quarter at a pace of at least 3 percent, and is continuing to expand now. The government releases third-quarter results next week. If analysts are right, that would mark a turning point for the economy, which has contracted for a record four straight quarters.
The central bank's survey findings will figure into discussions when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues meet Nov. 3-4. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates at record low at that time and probably into next year to help foster the recovery.
Inflation, meanwhile, was under wraps, the Fed report suggested. That gives the central bank leeway to keep rates low.
Competition, cautious consumers and expectations for a lethargic recovery mean companies won't be rushing to boost prices, the report said.
Known as the Beige Book, the survey does not include precise figures, but rather offers anecdotal snapshots of economic and financial activity nationwide.

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
On 3:45 pm EDT, Wednesday October 21, 2009

Who Made Our Nice Home???

The other night I was getting ready to put my 3-year-old son to bed, and was telling my wife how much I appreciated her for making our home so nice. My son stopped what he was doing and replied, "No Dad, Arbor made our home nice!"

My wife and I had to laugh at our son's wit. For those of you who don't know I was an Arbor customer before I was an Arbor employee. As soon as our son started being interested in Bob the Builder, he began to ask us who built our house. With that, we told him the whole story about Arbor building our home from the dirt up...and not only building our home but our beautiful neighborhood as well. I guess that really stuck with him because (as hard as my wife works to make the inside of our home) Arbor will always get the credit for our house.

If you have ever worked with me (or come into look for a home in the future) you will notice my passion for my job and the company. Yes I love the job that I do, but part of the reason is that I believe in the product. I am not just a Realtor; I am a happy homeowner.

Stocks rise as earnings reports top expectations

Stocks climb as earnings jump past expectations; Eaton, Gannett gain after results top views

By Ieva M. Augstums and Tim Paradis, AP Business Writers
On 5:27 pm EDT, Monday October 19, 2009


NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors are seeing the kind of earnings numbers that make them feel confident about stocks.

AP - Specialist Glenn Carell, right, works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Monday, Oct. 19, 2009. ...
The stock market stepped to new highs for the year Monday after a handful of earnings reports bolstered hopes that the economy is coming back sooner than many analysts had thought.
That is helping some investors move past a bout of nerves about whether expectations for the economy are stretched too far. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 96 points, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose but ended just shy of 1,100, having topped that level during the day.
Industrial equipment maker Eaton Corp. said it was seeing improvement in key markets and raised its full-year profit forecast. Newspaper publisher Gannett Co. managed to post a profit despite a sharp fall in revenue.
The gains came ahead of quarterly earnings released after the closing bell from Apple Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. Both wound up beating forecasts.
Apple blew past expectations because of increased sales of the iPhone, while Texas Instruments' profit and sales came in above the improved forecast the chip maker issued just last month. Share of both tech companies gained in after-hours electronic trading.
The reports are adding to investors' expectations for the technology industry. Last week, Google Inc. and chipmaker Intel Corp. posted solid earnings. Many tech companies have strong balance sheets have large amounts of cash that have enabled them to weather the recession better than companies in other industries.
Caterpillar Inc., Coca-Cola Co. and DuPont are slated to report results before the opening bell Tuesday.
A drop in the dollar also helped push commodity prices higher, which in turn helped stocks of materials and energy companies.
Investors are relieved to see better results in a broad range of industries following some downbeat news last week from major banks, which reported rising loan delinquencies.
Burt White, chief investment officer at LPL Financial in Boston, noted that three of every four companies have topped analysts' expectations for earnings in the July-September quarter. While most have yet to report, the early results are a sign that companies are holding up better than many had predicted.
"The recovery is moving faster than analysts can sharpen their pencils and revise their estimates upward," he said.
The Dow rose 96.28, or 1 percent, to 10,092.19. The broader S&P 500 index rose 10.23, or 0.9 percent, to 1,097.91. For both indexes, it was the highest close since Oct. 3 last year.
The Nasdaq composite index rose 19.52, or 0.9 percent, to 2,176.32.
The day's advance came on the 22nd anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash known as "Black Monday," which saw the Dow plunge a record 22.6 percent on worries about interest rates and slowing economic growth.
Bond prices were mixed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.38 percent from 3.42 percent late Friday.
Investors grew hopeful that Federal Reserve policymakers would be able to withdraw some of the money supporting the economy as conditions improved. That could help prevent inflation, which is a worry for investors because of the huge amounts of money the government has pumped into the financial system.
The New York Federal Reserve, which carries out the central bank's market operations, said it has been preparing plans for how it could begin weaning the economy from monetary stimulus.
The dollar mostly fell against other major currencies, while gold prices rose. The ICE Futures U.S. dollar index, which tracks the dollar against other major currencies, fell 0.3 percent. It is at its lowest level since August 2008.
Light, sweet crude rose $1.08 to settle at $79.61 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index, a measure of commodities trading, jumped 1.3 percent to its highest level of the year.
Among companies posting earnings, Eaton rose $3.47, or 5.7 percent, to $63.89, while Gannett advanced $1.06, or 8.2 percent, to $14.06.
Apple rose $1.81, or 1 percent, to $189.86 in the regular session and rose 6.7 percent in electronic trading after its report. Texas Instruments rose 77 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $23.52 and added 2 percent in late trading.
Bob Jergovic, chief investment officer at CLS Investments in Omaha, Neb., said investors are now trying to determine whether a recovery in corporate profits will continue and, if so, whether that will help the overall economy if companies are more willing to hire and make investments.
"We're in that phase where the market has really got to sort it out," he said. "Can we make that handoff from a profit recovery to an economic recovery?"
More than two stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.1 billion shares compared with 1.4 billion Friday.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 6.16, or 1 percent, to 622.34.
Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.8 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 1.9 percent, and France's CAC-40 advanced 1.7 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.2 percent.

Dow closes above 10,000 for 1st time in a year

Back on September 28th, I had predicted that the Dow would jump to 10k. Well here it is. Now where do we go?

Dow closes above 10,000 for 1st time in a year
DJ comeback: Stock market's best-known barometer closes above 10,000 for 1st time in a year

By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
On 5:49 pm EDT, Wednesday October 14, 2009

The best-known barometer of the stock market entered five-figure territory again Wednesday, the most visible sign yet that investors believe the economy is clawing its way back from the worst downturn since the Depression.
The milestone caps a stunning 53 percent comeback for the Dow since early March, when stocks were at their lowest levels in more than a decade.
"It's almost like an announcement that the bear market is over," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. in Boston. "That is an eye-opener -- 'Hey, you know what, things must be getting better because the Dow is over 10,000.'"
Cheers went up briefly when the Dow eclipsed the milestone in the early afternoon, during a daylong rally driven by encouraging earnings reports from Intel Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. The average closed at 10,015.86, up 144.80 points.
It was the first time the Dow had touched 10,000 since October 2008, that time on the way down.
"I think there were times when we were in the deep part of the trough there back in the springtime when it felt like we'd never get back to this level," said Bernie McSherry, senior vice president of strategic initiatives at Cuttone & Co.
Ethan Harris, head of North America economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, described it as a "relief rally that the world is not coming to an end."
The mood was far from the euphoria of March 1999, when the Dow surpassed 10,000 for the first time. The Internet then was driving extraordinary gains in productivity, and serious people debated whether there was such a thing as a boom without end.
"If this is a bubble," The Wall Street Journal marveled on its front page, "it sure is hard to pop."
It did pop, of course. And then came the lost decade.
The Dow peaked at 14,164.53 in October 2007, then lost more than half its value after the financial meltdown last fall. At its low point, the average stood at 6,547.05. The breathtaking rally since then brings stocks to roughly break-even for the past 10 years.
On Wednesday, the Dow rose 144.80, or 1.5 percent, to 10,015.86, its biggest gain since Aug. 21 and highest close since Oct. 3 last year.
Broader indexes also climbed to 2009 highs. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 18.83, or 1.8 percent, to 1,092.02. The index, the basis of many mutual funds, is up 61.4 percent from a 12-year low in March.
The Nasdaq composite index rose 32.34, or 1.5 percent, to 2,172.23. It's up 71.2 percent since March.
So where does the market go from here?
Some market watchers see 10,000 as an illusion because there are still lingering threats to an economic recovery -- rising unemployment, weak consumer spending and a battered housing market.
The investors who have driven stocks higher since March are the pros: hedge funds and institutions whose furious selling hastened the collapse of the market in the first place.
And red flags are showing up in the technical charts that professional investors use as they make their trading decisions. The Dow sits about 18 percent above its average of the past 200 days.
"The market by all technical indicators is completely overbought, just like back in March it was completely oversold," said Rich Hughes, co-president of Portfolio Management Consultants in Los Angeles.
On the other hand, Wall Street analysts say 10,000 is more than just a number -- it can have legitimate psychological implications.
A recovering stock market soothes the psyche as people watch their portfolios and 401(k) retirement accounts being replenished. And if people start spending again, that may persuade more investors, including some reluctant pros, to go back into the market.
"Psychology plays a huge role in investing, so when you're trying to overcome the huge levels of panic and fear that we've seen over the last year, psychology shouldn't be discounted," said Carl Beck, a partner at Harris Financial Group.
Many investors, especially individuals, are afraid they'll put money into the market only to watch it disappear if stocks plunge again. It's happened before: In 1975, stocks rose 53 percent in less than four months after a recession. Then they lost 11 percent before climbing again in early 1976.
If stocks follow historical patterns, they could be nearing their peak. Assuming the recession technically ended this summer, as many economists believe, the Dow's surge since March puts it near where past rebounds have started to fade.
On top of that, there are still plenty of problems that could trip up the market. Companies posted better-than-expected earnings in the second quarter, but mostly because of cost-cutting, not the sales increases needed to keep growing.
Earnings reports from chip maker Intel Corp. and banker JPMorgan Chase & Co. gave the Dow its final push past 10,000.
JPMorgan, the first major bank to report third-quarter earnings, stoked the market's optimism as it easily beat Wall Street's expectations, reporting a profit of $3.59 billion for the July-September period. The stock, a Dow component, rose $1.50, or 3.3 percent, to $47.16.
Financial stocks have posted the biggest gains since the rally began, but they were also among the most decimated. JPMorgan is up 197 percent and Bank of America Corp. is up 492 percent.
Intel also beat analysts' estimates, reporting a smaller-than-expected drop in profits and sales after the market closed Tuesday. Intel rose 34 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $20.83.
Individual investors remain cautious. In August, well into the rally, they put $11 into bond funds for every dollar they put into stock funds, according to the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund trade group.
But they appear to slowly be coming back to stocks. Retail brokerage TD Ameritrade reported an average of 431,000 trades a day in August, up from barely more than 300,000 when the market was sliding in January and February.
If the market can hold Wednesday's milestone, investors should grow even more confident.
"It wouldn't surprise me if it made Joe Main Street more comfortable," David Kelson, portfolio manager of Talon Asset Management in Chicago.
Bond prices fell as stocks soared. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.42 percent from 3.35 percent late Tuesday.
Oil jumped $1.03 to settle at $75.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 12.24, or 2 percent, to 623.94.

Intel profit falls but outlook upbeat, stock jumps

Intel profit falls but outlook upbeat, stock jumps
Intel profit falls 8 pct but chip maker offers better-than-expected guidance, shares leap

By Jordan Robertson, AP Technology Writer
On 5:26 pm EDT, Tuesday October 13, 2009


The world's No. 1 microprocessor maker said Tuesday that profit and sales both fell 8 percent in the July-September period, as the company was hurt by sluggish demand from businesses and lower prices for its chips. Intel has insisted things are improving, however, and offered better-than-expected guidance for the fourth quarter, sending its shares up nearly 5 percent.
As the first major technology company to report third-quarter earnings, Intel's numbers will lend insight into the strength or weakness of PC makers' demand for new chips. What the figures don't show, though, is whether PC companies are stocking up on chips to replenish low supplies, or whether they expect especially brisk sales of computers to consumers and businesses. That will begin to play out in the coming weeks, as the holiday season gets under way with a new edition of Windows available Oct. 22.
Intel said after the market closed that its net income was $1.9 billion, or 33 cents per share. Analysts expected 28 cents per share, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters. Last year, Intel's profit was $2.0 billion, or 35 cents a share, in the year-ago period.
Sales were $9.4 billion, better than Wall Street's forecast of $9.0 billion.
Intel had bumped up Wall Street's expectations twice. The first time was in August, when it raised its guidance, and the second was last month, when its CEO, Paul Otellini, predicted that PC sales could defy predictions by growing in 2009, which would avert the first year-over-year sales decline since 2001.
Still, the company's latest numbers show the recession continues to take a toll, even as Intel gets more skillful at wringing more out of its business.
The company's gross profit margin was 57.6 percent of revenue. Its previous forecast was for 51 percent to 55 percent of revenue, and in the last quarter the figure was 50.8 percent of revenue.
Gross margin is especially important for a manufacturing-intensive company such as Intel because it measures how well a company is controlling its costs. Making computer chips can be prohibitively expensive.
For the fourth quarter, Intel forecast sales of $10.1 billion, plus or minus $400 million. Analysts expected $9.5 billion.
Intel shares jumped 96 cents, 4.7 percent, to $21.45 in extended trading. Before the earnings report the stock had closed at $20.49, up 9 cents on the day.

Survey of top economists find most believe recession is over

Survey of top economists find most believe recession is over

By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
On 10:28 am EDT, Monday October 12, 2009

More than 80% of top economists believe that the recession that started almost two years ago is finally over. But most don't expect meaningful improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come.
That's according to a survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). The group asked 43 top economists last month if they believe the battered U.S. economy has pulled out of the worst U.S. downturn since World War II. Those surveyed include economists from leading Wall Street firms and major corporations, as well as from highly respected universities and research firms.
Thirty-five respondents, or 81%, believe the recovery has begun. Only four, or 9%, believe the economy is still in a recession. The other four say they're uncertain.
Economists in the survey forecast that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3% in the three months that ended in September, though the official reading of gross domestic product won't be out for weeks.
And all of the economists surveyed expect the recovery to be slow and painful, leaving many people and businesses feeling the effects of the downturn for years to come.
The only organization that can officially declare the beginning or the end of a recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research. But that group doesn't make any sort of declaration until months after the fact, in order to take into account final readings of various economic measures such as employment, income and industrial production. For example, the NBER didn't declare that the recent recession had begun in December 2007 until a full year after the fact.
Lingering weakness
The NABE survey results echo comments made by many other prominent economists who have recently said they think the economy hit bottom at some point this summer.
Most notably, a recent statement from the Federal Reserve declared that economic readings "suggest economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn."
Still, the NABE survey found that economists are forecasting lingering weakness in the labor and housing markets, and that the tight credit markets will continue to be a drag on economic growth into next year.
Unemployment, which was at a 26-year high of 9.8% in September, is forecast to hit 10% during the last three months of this year, and stay there through the first quarter of 2010. By the end of next year, it's only expected to fall back down to 9.5%.
About 54% of those surveyed don't expect the economy to regain the jobs it lost during the recession until 2012, while another 38% expect that to take even longer. Just three of the economists that the NABE spoke to expect these jobs to come back in 2010 or 2011.
And many don't think the worst is over yet for housing either. About a third of economists believe that home prices won't bottom out until early 2010 or later, while a quarter of them believe the low will come in the fourth quarter.
Half of those surveyed expect the financial markets to continue to be a drag on the economy until next year, while 30% of them said that trend could continue into 2011.
The NABE last surveyed economists in May, and they were far less optimistic at the time. Only 18% of them thought the economy would recover in the last quarter of 2009, while 7% saw a turnaround sometime in 2010.

How Long Will Mortgage Rates Stay Low???

So as I sit here in jury duty, I began surfing the net (don't worry, the case hasn't started yet). I came across this article about interest rates. What it basically says is that you need to buy a home before the rates go up! Take a read.

Mortgage rates remain below 5 percent

Freddie Mac: Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages stay below 5 percent for 2nd-straight week

On 11:59 am EDT, Thursday October 8, 2009


McLEAN, Va. (AP) --The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.87 percent, down from 4.94 percent last week, Freddie Mac said. The last time rates for 30-year home loans were lower was the week ending May 21, when they averaged 4.82 percent.
This week's average rate for 30-year mortgages remained above the record low of 4.78 percent established in the spring. Last year at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.94 percent.
Low rates make home buying or refinancing more attractive for consumers. Case in point: refinance applications climbed 18 percent from last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.
By refinancing at current rates, borrowers could trim nearly $134 off their monthly mortgage payments on a $200,000, 30-year fixed-rate loan, Freddie Mac said.
"Such low rates are spurring mortgage demand," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist.
Still, borrowers may want to consider the Federal Reserve's recent announcement that it is slowing down a program intended to lower mortgage rates and boost the housing market. Analysts say mortgage rates should remain low for now but could eventually move higher, and homeowners who want to refinance mortgages shouldn't drag their feet.
Freddie Mac collects mortgage rates on Monday through Wednesday of each week from lenders around the country. Rates often fluctuate significantly, even within a given day.
The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage fell to 4.33 percent from 4.36 percent last week, according to Freddie Mac. This week's rate on 15-year mortgages was the lowest since Freddie Mac started tracking it in 1991.
Rates on five-year, adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 4.35 percent, down from 4.42 percent a week earlier. Rates on one-year, adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 4.53 percent from 4.49 percent last week.
The rates do not include add-on fees known as points. The nationwide fee for loans in Freddie Mac's survey averaged 0.7 point for 30-year and 15-year mortgages, and 0.5 point for five-year and one-year home loans.

HGTV Visits Arbor Homes

HGTV came and visited Arbor Crossing. They were shooting My First Place. It is where first time home buyers search out 3-4 separate properties that they want to live in. It was exciting to be able to showcase this beautiful Arbor Neighborhood. Keep your eye out for Arbor Crossing on HGTV's My First Place.

Scramble for $8K

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Aspiring homebuyers rushed to take advantage of a tax credit for first-time owners that expires in November, driving up the number of signed sales contracts for the seventh straight month in August.

Construction spending also rose unexpectedly in August on the biggest jump in housing activity in nearly 16 years, another sign the real estate market is recovering from its four-year slump, data Thursday showed.
Sales and homebuilding are being fueled by a tax-credit of up to $8,000, low mortgage rates and cheap foreclosures. In some of the most hard-hit areas, like Phoenix and Las Vegas, there are bidding wars for deeply discounted properties. And in all but a few cities, home prices are slowly starting to rise, reversing their three-year descent.
To make sure first-time buyers can complete their purchases by the Nov. 30 deadline, real estate agents "have been pushing buyers to sign a contract at least a couple months in advance" according to Abiel Reinhart, an economist with JPMorgan Chase.
More than a dozen bills have been introduced in Congress to extend the credit, but it's unclear if lawmakers want to continue to subsidize the market.
The National Association of Realtors said Thursday its index of sales agreements rose 6.4 percent from July to 103.8, beating forecasts. It was the highest since March 2007 and 12 percent above a year ago. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected the index would rise to 98.6.
Typically there is a one- to two-month lag between a contract and a done deal, so the index is a barometer of future sales. However, new rules for home appraisals and rigid lending standards have scuttled many sales agreements recently. In addition, the index may also double-count some buyers who agree to purchase other homes after the first deal falls through.
These factors have made the index a less reliable gauge for completed sales. Despite a steady increase in the number of signed contracts this summer, for example, completed sales actually took an unexpected 2.7 percent dip in August.
"Perhaps the real question is how many transactions are being delayed in the pipeline, and how many are being canceled," Lawrence Yun, the Realtors' chief economist, said in a statement. "Without historic precedents, it's challenging to assess."
Pending sales were up 16 percent in the West and 8 percent in the Northeast. They were up 3 percent in the Midwest and nearly 1 percent in the South.
Home prices, meanwhile rose 1.2 percent from June to July, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose in all but three metro areas, Las Vegas, Detroit, and Seattle.
Housing experts, however, remain divided on whether the price gains signal a definite bottom to the worst housing downturn in decades or just a brief respite from plummeting prices.

Index shows home prices rose for 3rd month in July

AP - In this Sept. 22, 2009 photo, builder Jean Gagnon cuts siding panels while completing a new home in ...



NEW YORK (AP) -- Home prices rose again in July, new data Tuesday showed, a trend that will help ease the foreclosure crisis and slowly rebuild the wealth of millions of American homeowners.
The new direction for home prices, which declined for 36 months before turning around in June, reflects an increase in demand from homebuyers. Home resales have climbed for four of the past five months, driven by low mortgage rates, a tax credit for new owners and low-priced foreclosures.
Sales of newly built homes are up 30 percent from the bottom, but are off about 70 percent from the peak of four years ago. Sales of previously owned homes are nearly 14 percent higher, but are still down nearly 30 percent from their peak.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities rose 1.2 percent from June to a reading of 143.05, according to the seasonally adjusted data. Though home prices are still 13.3 percent below July a year ago, the annual declines have slowed in all 20 cities for the sixth straight month.
"No matter how you measure it, house prices looked to have bottomed, which is the much-needed ingredient required to bake this housing market recovery," wrote Jennifer Lee, economist at BMO Capital Market.
The index has risen at an 8 percent annualized rate in the three months to July, the best performance since early 2006, noted Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. Economist for High-Frequency Economics.
The index, however, is down about 30 percent from the peak in mid-2006 and some analysts are calling for additional price declines over the next year, though more moderate than previously forecasted. And 16 million homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Those homeowners are more likely to go into foreclosure if they lose their jobs because they can't sell unless their lenders agree to take the losses.
Fannie Mae said Tuesday nearly 4.2 percent of its home loans were at least three months delinquent in July, up from 3.9 percent in June.
Home prices are now at levels not seen since the third quarter of 2003. And prices in Las Vegas, Detroit and Seattle are still falling, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Prices in Las Vegas, one of the most speculative markets during the boom, are down more almost 55 percent from their peak. In August, almost 80 percent of home resales in Nevada were either a foreclosure or a sale below the value of the mortgage, according to a survey by the National Association of Realtors.
The Detroit housing market is reeling from layoffs in the automotive industry. Seattle, by contrast, was one of the last areas to enter the downturn so prices there have yet to hit bottom.
And there are still several risks to the national housing recovery, including rising unemployment and foreclosures and the expiration of a tax credit for first-time homebuyers.
First-time homeowners can qualify for a tax credit worth 10 percent of the purchase price, up to $8,000, but it expires at the end of November. More than a dozen bills to extend the credit have been introduced in Congress, but it's unclear if lawmakers want to continue subsidizing the real estate market.
Real estate agents and homebuilders are lobbying hard for an extension. They point to continued areas of weakness, such as foreclosures, which now are being driven by job losses, which are also weighing on the minds of consumers. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index dipped unexpectedly this month to 53.1 after three months of gains, down from the revised 54.5 reading in August.
Nevertheless, there are clear positive trends in the housing markets. Home prices rose in 13 metro areas for at least three straight months. The biggest gains in July were in Minneapolis, San Francisco and Chicago.
Agents in those three cities say prices are stabilizing because there are fewer foreclosures and less inventory overall. Lower priced homes are also getting multiple bids.
"Now we're seeing standard sales ticking up and foreclosure sales are way down," said real estate agent Barb Van Stensel of Keller Williams Lincoln Square.
The Case-Shiller indexes measure home price increases and decreases relative to prices in January 2000. The base reading is 100; so a reading of 150 would mean that home prices increased 50 percent since the beginning of the index.

By J.W. Elphinstone, AP Real Estate Writer
On Tuesday September 29, 2009, 2:13 pm EDT

Will the DOW JONES Hit 10K

It is interesting to see where we have come with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. To give you some insight, the DOW closed on May 26Th 1896 at 40.94. The thought back then was the DOW would never hit 300. Well it took 45 years, but the DOW closed at 381.17 on September 3 1929. At that time the new benchmark was 1,000. Right around when my grandfather celebrated his 3rd birthday (1929), I am sure they all thought that it would almost be impossible to hit 1,000. November 14Th 1972 (my brother was almost 1 year old) it did it, it hit 1,000! During the the 80's it hovered right around 2,000. It wasn't until the 90's it really did some amazing things. It went from 2,256.43 in 1989 to 10,006.78 in 1999.

Enough of the history lesson. Now here we are in 2009 and we are set to see the DOW hit 10k again. Does it mean we are healthy again, maybe not. Does it mean we are more confident as a county again, perhaps. Regardless what it means, we live in a country that is strong. Our poorest of the poor here in America are some times the richest of the rich in other countries. To put an exclamation on this point, I have a friend that lives in Russia. He is amazed that we have such big homes. In Russia, if you have a one bedroom (we in the US would consider this as a studio) we would be comfortable. Now, if you lived in a 2 bedroom (we in the US would consider this to be a 1 bedroom) we would be pretty well off. It makes me think of my Arbor Home. I live in a 3 bedroom home with a loft and just over 1800 sq. ft. of living space. In America, it is considered a modest home. Imagine how rich I look to my friend in Russia.

Just to be living in the USA makes you richer than most of the world. Enjoy this great country!

Last Days for $8k Commercial

Why You Shouldn't Buy a Foreclosed or Short Sale Home

Lately I have had people coming into Arbor Pass asking me about foreclosed or short sale homes. The above picture shows the nightmare that could happen. Not to mention, if you are banking on the $8K tax credit, don't hold your breath. You could wait up to 1 year to get your keys with a short sale. Take a good read at the below article.

Damascus man even took the kitchen sink from foreclosed home

by Nicole Dungca, The Oregonian
Monday August 24, 2009, 8:14 PM

Grigoriy Bogoslavets' kitchen once contained thousands of dollars in high-quality fixtures
DAMASCUS -- After stripping his foreclosed home of everything from the air conditioning system to the kitchen sink, Grigoriy Bogoslavets was convicted of a crime that is often witnessed but rarely reported.
The 33-year-old electrician pleaded no contest last month to aggravated theft after stealing more than $50,000 of property attached to his former Damascus home, one of the few such cases in Oregon or across the country to result in prosecution. He will be sentenced Sept. 22.
After foreclosure, the kitchen was stripped of nearly everything that could be removed, including the kitchen sink and cabinets.
Prosecutor Bryan Brock, who is handling the case for the Clackamas County district attorney's office, said he has never seen a similar indictment. Detective Jim Strovink of the Clackamas County Sheriff's Office called it a "very isolated case."
Departing homeowners' taking off with fixtures that are legally part of the house -- generally anything attached or installed -- is nothing new to real estate brokers. What's changing, especially in the nation's worst housing markets, is the recognition that such acts can be criminal.
Banks, which usually can recoup losses from insurance claims, rarely take the time and effort to report theft of home fixtures. But law enforcement officials say nearby residents, eager to preserve their own home values, are starting to turn in their former neighbors.
That's what happened in the Bogoslavets case. Neighbors tipped off police when they saw Bogoslavets return to his former home with a van after vacating the premises. Investigators discovered Bogoslavets had taken nearly everything he could remove, including the kitchen island, fireplace, bathtubs, the doorbell and electrical outlets.
In Phoenix, where average home values in some areas have dropped more than 50 percent since their 2006 high, the FBI has intervened. In April, members of the FBI's Mortgage Fraud Task Force arrested five people accused of stripping their foreclosed homes. Some of them advertised foreclosure sales on Craigslist, according to Julie Halferty, the task force supervisor.
Some local Arizona law enforcement agencies are also taking more of a hard line. The Surprise, Ariz., Police Department arrested a former homeowner who took items estimated at $20,000.
"If it's $100,000 or $15,000, it doesn't matter," Sgt. Mark Ortega said. "If we have proof that it was committed ... it's pretty simple."
In Oregon, stripping foreclosed homes down to the walls is becoming more of an issue just by virtue of increased foreclosures, said Carl Iams, the real estate broker who was assigned to the Bogoslavets' home.
Brock did not speculate on whether Oregon will see more of these arrests. But if Clackamas County law enforcement brings forward more strong cases, he said, the district attorney's office will prosecute them.
"It's a question of reporting it," Brock said. "In the past, we have not said no to these cases, we've just not had them reported."
In some cases, it can be difficult to prove a crime has occurred, such as when a homeowner removes fixtures after receiving a notice of default but before officially losing ownership to a bank or mortgage company. Under Oregon law, amenities secured to the home, such as toilets and fireplaces, are the property of the titleholder.
Bogoslavets was an exceptional case because of the amount he took, as well as his additional criminal charges. As part of a plea bargain, he pleaded no contest to four counts of first-degree aggravated theft for fraudulent dealings with an electrical contractor company. Prosecutors plan to recommend a sentence of nearly four years in prison.
Iams said he hopes that Bogoslavets' conviction will serve as a symbol for the thousands of Oregonians who could lose their homes this year.
"People knowing that criminal charges can be filed will hopefully serve as a deterrent," he said.
-- Nicole Dungca; nicoledungca@news.oregonian.com

TOPWRAP-A year after Lehman, Bernanke says recession likely over

* Bernanke says U.S. recession likely over
* U.S. retail data lifts stocks, pressures bonds
* Banks of England and Canada say recovery to be slow (Updates with U.S. markets' closes; details of Lehman Brothers anniversary)
By Caroline Valetkevitch
NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - A year after the Lehman Brothers collapse, Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday the recession was likely over, while data supported hopes that recovery from the worst downturn in decades was advancing.
But Bernanke said the recovery would be slow and it would take time to create jobs. Similar warnings came from the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, whose governor also said the bank could cut the interest rate it pays on commercial banks' deposits. For more see [ID:nN1523355].
The comments came exactly one year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers investment bank, an event that set off the U.S. economy's worst recession since the 1930s and helped spark a global financial crisis.
"Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time," Bernanke said after addressing a Brookings Institution conference. Fed officials meet next week to review their policy options.
The U.S. Commerce Department said retail sales climbed 2.7 percent in August after declining 0.2 percent in July. It was the biggest monthly advance since January 2006 and well above expectations on Wall Street for a 2 percent increase.
"Retail sales show the recovery is here. This wasn't just autos, it wasn't just gasoline. This was the U.S. consumer getting out of their foxhole," said T.J. Marta, market strategist at Marta on the Markets in Scotch Plains, New Jersey. "This is indisputably a good number."
Readings on manufacturing in the New York region and on national producer prices also came in stronger than expected.
Stocks in Europe and the United States rose after the retail data, with the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index .SPX gaining 0.3 percent to end at 1,052.63, while U.S. Treasuries prices US10YT=RR fell, pulling benchmark yields back from two-month lows.
The S&P is up about 55 percent since hitting 12-year lows in early March, but investors have been eager to see more definitive signs that the economy is getting better.
In its monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which left its world oil demand forecast for 2010 unchanged, also said a recovery will be slow and gradual, even though evidence shows the world economy should be improving.
Crude oil prices in New York CLV9 rose $2.07 to $70.93 a barrel.
In Germany, the ZEW survey showed a smaller-than-expected improvement in the country's investor morale.
The ZEW's expectations index for Germany rose to 57.7 from 56.1 in August, reaching its highest since April 2006, although economists had expected a bigger rise.
Adding to the mostly upbeat comments on the economy in the United States, President Barack Obama told autoworkers the U.S. economy was on the mend. [ID:nN1549500]
Even with signs of economic improvement, the rising U.S. unemployment rate has remained a top worry and autoworkers have been among the hardest hit by layoffs.
The Bank of Canada's deputy governor, meanwhile, said a smooth economic recovery in Canada is not yet assured and that the strength of the Canadian dollar is one factor that could derail a comeback. (Reporting by Reuters reporters worldwide; Editing by Dan Grebler)

Fed survey shows US recession may be over

US: Federal Reserve survey shows worst recession since 1930s may be over

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Economic activity is stabilizing or improving in most of the U.S., according to a new government survey, adding to evidence that the worst recession since the 1930s is over.
The Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow again in the current quarter.
In the survey released Wednesday, all but one of the Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was "stable," showed "signs of stabilization" or had "firmed." The one exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared to be "moderating."
Looking ahead, businesses in most Fed regions said they were "cautiously positive" about the economic outlook.
The assessments of businesses on the front lines of the economy was brighter than those they provided for the Fed report in late July. At that time, most regions said the recession was easing its grip and some of them reported signs that activity was leveling off.
In Wednesday's survey, the Dallas region indicated that economic activity had "firmed." The Fed regions of Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Richmond and San Francisco mentioned "signs of improvement." The Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis and New York regions described activity as "stable or showing signs of stabilization."
Analysts predict the economy is growing in the current July-September quarter at anywhere between 3 and 4 percent.
Most of that growth should come from more spending from businesses, which had slashed investments -- often by double-digits -- during the recession.
Consumer spending, however, is expected to turn up only because of the binge-buying of automobiles generated by the short-lived Cash for Clunkers program. Buyers were given cash rebates to trade in less efficient gas guzzlers.
The Fed's survey found that the majority of regions did report that the government's clunkers program "boosted traffic and sales." But aside from brisk businesses at auto dealerships, other merchants struggled. Consumer spending remained "soft" in most Fed regions.
Manufacturers in most regions, meanwhile, reported "modest" improvements. The San Francisco region said orders rose for semiconductors and other information technology products. Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago and Minneapolis reported increases or planned increases in automobile production. Several regions noted more production for pharmaceutical products.
Although the ailing residential real-estate market is still weak, it also flashed signs of improvements. The Fed regions of Chicago, Richmond, Boston and San Francisco observed an "uptick in sales." Most regions said buyer demand remained stronger at the low end of the housing market, although Philadelphia did note an "upturn in sales at the high end of the market."
The Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Richmond and New York regions credited the first-time home buyer tax incentive with spurring sales. Most regions reported downward pressure on home prices, although Dallas and New York said that prices were "firming."
The commercial real-estate market, however, continued to drag. Demand for space remained weak and construction fell again in all regions.
On the jobs front, employment conditions "remained weak" in all the Fed regions.
The nation's unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year high of 9.7 percent in August. It is expected to top 10 percent this year.
Many economists predict that rising unemployment will keep consumers cautious. For the budding recovery to be durable, businesses will have to step up spending and investment, analysts say.
The Fed's survey found that staffing firms in Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, New York and Chicago did report a "slight pickup" in demand for temporary workers. That's an encouraging sign because employers will usually boost use of temp workers before they hire new employees.
Still, several regions noted businesses and local governments were imposing wage freezes or cutting compensation in some cases. With the labor market weak, employers aren't expected to be generous with wages, a force that will keep inflation low, the Fed report said. Expectations for a lethargic recovery also likely will prevent companies from jacking up prices, keeping inflation subdued, the report suggested.

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
On Wednesday September 9, 2009, 3:07 pm EDT

July pending home sales rise to 2-year high

Pending US home sales rise for sixth straight month in July to highest level since June 2007

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A gauge of future U.S. home sales rose more than expected in July to the highest level in over two years as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of a tax credit that expires this fall.
The report showed the housing market is rebounding faster than expected from its historic bust. Low prices and the looming expiration on Nov. 30 of a first-time homebuyers' tax credit of up to $8,000 have spurred sales. Prices in much of the U.S. have begun to rise from the depths of the slump.
"The overall trend toward stabilization is undeniable at this point," wrote Mike Larson, real estate analyst at Weiss Research.
The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday its seasonally adjusted index of sales contracts signed in July for previously occupied homes rose 3.2 percent to 97.6. It was the sixth straight increase, and 12 percent higher the same month last year.
Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected the index to edge up to only 96.5.
The index of pending home sales indicates how sales completed this month and next will turn out. Typically, there is a one- to two-month lag between a contract and a final deal. But delays in getting mortgages approved and appraisals completed have recently lengthened the time it takes to close a deal in many cases.
Analysts predict sales will drop off when the tax credit expires, or if mortgage rates rise from near-record lows. Foreclosures also continue to rise, and banks are forced to sell those properties at deep discounts, pushing prices down.
A 12 percent jump in sales contracts in the West and a 3 percent increase in the South drove July's overall increase. Sales fell in the Northeast and Midwest.
The Realtors group projects that around 2 million first-time buyers will take advantage of the credit this year, and says it is spurring 350,000 additional sales that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
Nationally, home prices in the second quarter posted their first quarterly increase in three years, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller national index released last week. Prices are growing in some parts of the country, but "beware a rise in supply as frustrated would-be sellers see their chance," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
While home prices are still 30 percent below the mid-2006 peak, their new direction should bring relief to lenders, homeowners and buyers alike.
Falling property values have wiped out $4 trillion in homeowners' equity, and thousands have walked away from homes that are worth far less than their mortgage balance. But now, with prices stabilizing, many buyers who had been staying out of the market are coming off the sidelines.

By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer On Tuesday September 1, 2009, 11:51 am EDT

Are You Renting???

Are you renting? If so, hit this LINK and plug in your rent. It will give you an accurate calculation if you should buy or continue to rent. I think that you will find it shocking how much you can truly afford. I look forward to hearing about your experience.

Donating Plasma

As an agent for Arbor, my desire it to respond to phone calls and emails quickly (even on my days off). If you were unable to reach me on Friday morning, it was for a very good reason. Here is the story behind Friday morning:" On Friday my wife and I donated Plasma. I have donated before for the Red Cross, but never got paid for it. My wife and I decided to see how much we could get paid for donating. After about 20 minutes on the web, we found a place in Portland that pays: Biomat USA. On your first donation you receive $25 and on the second $40. We don't need the money, we just thought if we are going to donate, why not get paid?

So we left the kids with the grandparents and headed off early to Biomat. We needed to stand in line 30 minutes before they open to make sure we got in, it is that popular. We pulled up into the parking lot, immediately I wanted to leave. There was a very different variation of people that I was not used to. My wife said "no, we are doing it" and we got in line. We waited in line for over 30 minutes, then they opened the doors and rushed us in. When we first entered, it looked like the DMV back in LA California, lots of seats with blue tones on the walls. After signing in and getting a physical, I was placed on a bed away from my wife. Now here comes the very interesting part. All these people there were doing it for money. My wife and I would have done it for free to help save lives. We just wanted some fun money to go out to a nice lunch. But these people really needed the money. One guy that was donating, needed the money for his 5 hour old baby. Another needed the money because he just lost his job. My heart was breaking the longer I spent there. I was so sadden for these people that "need" to sell a part of their body to not go hungry, or for their children not to go hungry. How blessed I am to have a great job, that pays well and allows my children to never go hungry. You would think that these people would be down hearted about their situation, but no! They were upbeat and encouraging.

Now here comes the embarrassing part. So I am 50 minutes into donating and feeling good when all of a sudden, I felt dizzy and sick to my stomach. The nurse looked over at me and began to run to me. She said "are you okay?" I said NO! She called over 3 other people to help. They put my feet up, began fanning me with my chart and gave me an ice pack. I thought I was going to die. They shut off the machine that separated my plasma from my blood and took the needle out. I began to feel better. Everyone was looking at me (at least that is what it felt like). I was so humbled. After I was feeling better, a lot of the people that were donating ask if I was okay. Again I was humbled, because when I first walked in to the place I wanted to know if they were okay.

My wife and I each collected our $25 and left. As we were getting out of the parking lot, a man (who had just donated) asked if we could jump his car. We did. He was the father of 3 children (1 just 2 months old) and his car was really beat up. He really needed the money for his 3 kids. My wife and I left and went to our favorite BBQ restaurant Russell Street BBQ. We spent $25 at Russell Street and then bought a $25 gift card for my in laws for baby sitting. The same money that we paid for BBQ tofu and a gift card, was the same money that other donors were paying for diapers. I am very blessed and I am reminded to be very thankful for what I have!

July new US home sales up 9.6 percent

New US home sales in July surge 9.6 pct, beating expectations in 4th straight monthly increase

By Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer
On Wednesday August 26, 2009, 12:27 pm EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of new U.S. homes surged 9.6 percent in July, another sign the housing market is climbing back from the historic bottom it reached early this year. Driven by falling prices, the fourth-straight monthly increase was greater than expected.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 from an upwardly revised June rate of 395,000. Sales are now up more than 30 percent from the bottom in January, but are still off nearly 70 percent from the frenzied peak four years ago.
The median sales price of $210,100, however, was down slightly from $210,400 in June and was off 11.5 percent from year-ago levels. Prices are still up from March's low of $205,100.
Last month's sales pace was the strongest since September and exceeded the forecasts of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who expected a pace of 390,000 units.
In a kind of Cash for Clunkers effect, homebuyers are rushing to take advantage of a federal tax credit that covers 10 percent of the home price, or up to $8,000, for first-time owners. Home sales must be completed by the end of November for buyers to qualify.
Builders and real estate agents are pressing Congress for that credit to be extended. If it isn't, sales could reverse their upward trend.
Some builders are already seeing sales dip.
At A.F. Sterling Homes in Tucson, Arizona, sales dipped in July because the builder said it couldn't guarantee the homes could be finished in time to qualify, said Randy Agron the company's vice president,
"The real estate market is really a fragile thing," he said. "It's not the right time to take (the tax credit) away."
But still, the economy is healthier now, so sales are unlikely to fall back to the lows of last winter, even if the credit is discontinued, said Wells Fargo economist Adam York,
"People don't have the sense of panic and dread," about their futures, he said.
As sales rise, that's likely to make builders more confident about getting going on new projects, and that's likely to eventually lead to more jobs in the construction industry, which has been hurt badly by the recession.
"These are crucial elements of a sustainable recovery," David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities, wrote in a research note.
Each new home built creates, on average, the equivalent of three jobs lasting one year and generates about $90,000 in taxes paid to local and federal authorities, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
There were 271,000 new homes for sale at the end of July, down more than 3 percent from May. At the current sales pace, that represents 7.5 months of supply -- the lowest since April 2007. The decline means builders have scaled back construction to the point where supply and demand are coming into balance.
AP Real Estate Writer Alex Veiga contributed to this report from Los Angeles.

Consumer sentiment improves more than expected

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer sentiment rose more than expected in August and expectations hit the highest level since the recession began, indications that Americans' pessimism about the economy may be lifting.
The housing sector also showed signs of life as a national measure of home prices posted its first quarterly increase in three years.
The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday its Consumer Confidence index rose to 54.1 from an upwardly revised 47.4 in July. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a slight increase to 47.5.
Still, the index is well below 90, the minimum level associated with a healthy economy. Anything above 100 signals strong growth.
Economists closely monitor confidence because consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity. Consumer sentiment -- fueled by signs the economy is stabilizing -- has recovered a bit since hitting a record-low of 25.3 in February.
Many analysts expect the economy to grow 2-3 percent in the current July-September quarter, spurred by a more stable housing market and the Cash for Clunkers program, which has boosted auto sales.
But economists worry that without healthier consumer spending, the recovery may weaken next year.
The housing slump and a weak job market have made consumers reluctant to spend. But the outlook for jobs is improving, the Conference Board said, with fewer respondents saying positions are "hard to get," and more claiming they are "plentiful."
Consumers' expectations for the economy over the next six months rose to 73.5 from 63.4 in July, the highest level since December 2007, when the recession began. The consumer confidence survey was sent to 5,000 households and had a cutoff date for responses of August 18.
Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the jump in the expectations index meant consumers likely will spend more in the months ahead.
"It won't be a smooth ride, but with consumer confidence now tracking higher, the groundwork for a sustainable recovery appears to be in place," he wrote in a note to clients.
The housing sector also received positive news. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller's U.S. National Home Price Index rose 1.4 percent in the second quarter from the January-March period, the first quarterly increase in three years. Home prices, while still down almost 15 percent from last year, are at levels last seen in early 2003.
The reports, along with President Barack Obama's reappointment of Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chief, sent the financial markets higher. The Dow Jones industrial average rose about 80 points in midday trading, and broader indices also gained.
Obama said Tuesday that his administration's $787 billion stimulus package, and the extraordinary efforts by Bernanke to pump trillions of dollars into the financial system, have helped turn the economy around.
"Our auto industry is showing signs of life," Obama said. "Business investment is showing signs of stabilizing. Our housing market and credit markets have been saved from collapse."
Jobs are a weak spot, however, and could limit future consumer spending if Americans remain concerned about layoffs or declining wages.
Still, the Labor Department reported earlier this month that the unemployment rate dipped for the first time in 15 months, and workers' hours and pay rose slightly in July. The unemployment rate slipped to 9.4 percent, from 9.5 percent, while July job losses slowed to a total of 247,000, the fewest in a year and a big improvement from June's 443,000.

By Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
On Tuesday August 25, 2009, 12:02 pm EDT

Stocks jump as Bernanke says economy near recovery

(Bernanke the brain)

Stocks surge after Bernanke declares economy on verge of recovery, home sales jump

By Sara Lepro, AP Business Writer

On Friday August 21, 2009, 6:21 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said what investors wanted to hear, that the economy is indeed on the verge of recovery, and they responded with a rally that sent the major indexes to new highs for the year.
The Dow Jones industrials shot up 155 points Friday, closing above 9,500 for the first time since Nov. 4, and all the big indexes finished with gains of more than 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, Treasury prices tumbled, pushing yields sharply higher, as investors no longer felt they needed the safety of government debt.
The stock market's gains were broad, reaching across all industries, but the biggest jumps came from energy, industrial and material stocks as oil and commodities prices soared. Bank stocks also rose sharply.
Just nine days after the Fed declared the economy to be "leveling out" rather than contracting, Bernanke went further, saying, "the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good." Speaking at an annual Fed conference in Wyoming, Bernanke did warn that lending is not back to normal, and that the difficulty consumers and businesses are having obtaining loans will be a challenge. But his tone was the most optimistic it has been since the start of the financial crisis.
A bigger-than-expected jump in home sales also gave stocks a boost and helped send bonds lower. The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million in July, from a pace of 4.89 million in June.
It was the fourth straight monthly increase and the highest level of sales since August 2007. The rise in sales came amid a sharp decline in home prices.
The day's news ended a week of erratic trading on Wall Street. Investors have been struggling with concerns about consumer spending, but the combination of Bernanke's remarks and the home sales data pulled stocks out of the doldrums.
Still, while Bernanke's positive assessment on the economy was encouraging, the market's challenges, including rising unemployment and sluggish consumer spending, are certainly far from over. The market appears to be on an upward trajectory, but analysts cautioned that stocks will likely bounce around through at least the rest of the summer.
"The news isn't going to be all good from here on out," said Jordan Smyth, managing direct at Edgemoor Investment Advisors in Bethesda, Md.
The Dow rose 155.91, or 1.7 percent, to 9,505.96. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 18.76, or 1.9 percent, to 1,026.13, its highest close since Oct. 6. And the Nasdaq composite index rose 31.68, or 1.6 percent, to 2,020.90, reaching its highest close since Oct. 1.
For the week, the Dow rose 2.0 percent, the S&P 500 gained 2.2 percent, and the Nasdaq added 1.8 percent.
About four stocks rose for every one that fell Friday on the New York Stock Exchange where consolidated volume came to 5.88 billion shares, up from Thursday's 5 billion.
Bond prices tumbled. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, jumped to 3.56 percent, from 3.44 percent late Thursday.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 12.83, or 2.3 percent, to 581.51.
In other signs of investors' growing confidence in the economy, oil prices touched their highest point of the year on hopes that energy demand will soon pick up. After nearing $75, light, sweet crude for October delivery rose 98 cents to settle at $73.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
And the dollar, which, like Treasurys, is considered a safe-haven asset, tumbled against other major currencies.
While Bernanke's comments were clearly reassuring for the stock market, investors could quickly lose their optimism if one of their greatest concerns, consumer spending, shows more signs of weakness. The Fed's upbeat comments last week set off a rally that quickly stalled after a weak reading on consumer sentiment.
Next week, investors will get two key reports on consumer confidence that, if worse than expected, could easily upset the market's gains.
"We're not past the volatile stages of the market," said Lowell Pratt, president of The Burney Co., an equity management firm.
As job losses continue to mount, it will be difficult for consumers to feel comfortable about spending freely.
"Consumer spending normally is the driver of recoveries at the beginning," said Bob Baur, chief global economist at Principal Global Investors. "That's not happening this time."
"At some point, the market is going to ask to see more than just mixed data," he said. "It's going to want to see some real jobs produced and an end to job losses and some validation that the consumer isn't going to stay in a slump."
Analysts have long warned of an eventual decline in stocks after the market's massive jump since early March, during which major indexes have risen more than 45 percent off of 12-year lows. But the market has yet to see a significant pullback.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 1.4 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 2.0 percent, Germany's DAX index jumped 2.9 percent, and France's CAC-40 soared 3.2 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week up 184.56, or 2.0 percent, at 9,505.96. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 22.04, or 2.2 percent, to 1,026.13. The Nasdaq composite index rose 35.38, or 1.8 percent, to 2,020.90.
The Russell 2000 index, which tracks the performance of small company stocks, rose 17.61, or 3.1 percent, for the week to 581.51.
The Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index -- which measures nearly all U.S.-based companies -- ended at 10,463.53, up 223.01, or 2.2 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 13,185.26.

Homebuilder sentiment index rises in August

NEW YORK (AP) -- The National Association of Home Builders says its housing market index rose in August to the highest point in more than a year.
The Washington-based trade association said Monday the index rose one point to 18, a level not seen since June 2008.
The reading for current sales conditions was unchanged at 16, while traffic by prospective buyers rose three points to 16. The index for expected sales over the next six months jumped four points to 30, signaling that builders think the worst of the housing slump is over.
The report reflects a survey of 474 residential developers nationwide.
Index readings lower than 50 indicate negative sentiment about the market. The last time it was above 50 was in April 2006.

On Monday August 17, 2009, 1:02 pm EDT

New Signs Of Life In Housing

Steve Hagenbuckle, managing principal for TerraCap Partners, has stated some interesting points. Listen to what Steve says and let me know what you think: New Signs Of Life In Housing

New Homes for the Tax Credit of $8,000

Above you will find a picture of homes that will be done before the tax credit of $8,000 goes away. Arbor has really thought ahead to make sure we have enough inventory to sell for those that are going to take advantage of the tax credit. If you are still confused on how the tax credit works, hit this LINK that will answer all your questions.

On another note, it's official, the Feds believe that we are now working our way up out of the recession: "Stocks jump as Fed raises view of economy." I will tell you that if you are with a company that has survived and maybe even thrived in this economy, you are with a great company. I love the direction that Arbor is going. While other builders are running for the hills selling or foreclosing on land, Arbor is doing just the opposite. So the big question is, what will the new home market look like in 3 years here in the Portland Metro. Area? My prediction will be that Arbor will continue to be the number one builder in Oregon and will have the prime real estate property that everyone wants. As I have said in the past, Arbor is a forward thinking company.

Come see me or call (503-888-0133) to see what we have available for sale to meet the tax credit deadline of November 30, 2009.

A Las Vegas Vacation

My wife and I went on a 5 day vacation to Las Vegas w/out the kids (the photo is me in front of the NY hotel)! It was amazing and we didn't loose a penny (we don't gamble).
Being in the Real Estate business, I always have the housing market on my brain. As we flew in, I noticed plots of land that had a few homes on it and then just vacant lots. It looked as if the builders started building, ran out of money or foreclosed on the land and walked away. Now these poor people that purchased have less than a half built neighborhood. The scene of empty roads with dirt lots made me so sad. It makes me so proud to work for Arbor. It is nice to be selling homes and know that Arbor will be able to finish beautiful neighborhoods because we are a reputable builder that positioned ourselves very well for this market. With that said, it looks like the worst is behind us in this recession. Look at the article below.

It is good to be back to the Pacific NW!

____________________________________________________________________

NEW YORK (AP) -- The economy's most vexing problem, unemployment, is showing the first signs of easing. And Wall Street is celebrating.
Major stock indexes jumped more than 1 percent Friday after the government said the nation's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in July for the first time in 15 months and that employers cut fewer jobs. Bond prices fell, driving yields higher as investors left the safety of Treasurys.
The Labor Department report handed investors the best evidence yet that the economy could be climbing out of the recession. Analysts widely consider unemployment the biggest obstacle to a recovery in the economy, which is driven by consumer spending.
The surprise figures injected new life in a monthlong rally and provided validation for traders who have been betting since March that the economy is healing. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 114 points to cap its fourth straight weekly gain. The Dow is at its highest level since early November.
The government said employers shed 247,000 jobs in July, the fewest in a year. Economists had expected 320,000 lost jobs. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent in June, rather than rising to 9.6 percent as forecast.
"It really gave the market the proof that it needed to see," said Burt White, chief investment officer at LPL Financial in Boston.
The report is often the most anticipated bit of economic news each month on Wall Street and nervousness about what it would reveal held stocks to modest moves most of the week. The exception came Monday when Ford Motor Co. said its monthly sales rose for the first time in nearly two years because the government's cash for clunkers program was drawing customers. That, and good news about manufacturing, construction and banking, sent the Standard & Poor's 500 index over 1,000 for the first time in nine months.
With the pop Friday, the S&P 500 index is up 14.9 percent in only four weeks and 49.4 percent from a 12-year low in early March.
Still, some analysts say the gains have come too quickly and question whether an economic rebound can ever live up to the expectations investors are now setting.
"We've run very fast, very quickly," said Marc Harris, co-head of global research for RBC Capital Markets in New York. "I think we're due to take a breath."
The Dow rose 113.81, or 1.2 percent, to 9,370.07. The broader S&P 500 index gained 13.40, or 1.3 percent, to 1,010.48, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 27.09, or 1.4 percent, to 2,000.25.
About 2,300 stocks rose on the New York Stock Exchange, while about 700 fell. Consolidated volume rose to 7 billion shares from 6.8 billion Thursday.
For the week, the Dow added 2.2 percent, the S&P 500 index rose 2.3 percent and the Nasdaq rose 1.1 percent.
Meanwhile, bond prices fell as the jobs reading limited demand for the safety of government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.86 percent from 3.76 percent late Thursday.
Financial and retail stocks rallied Friday along with the broader market.
Insurer American International Group Inc. posted its first quarterly profit since 2007. The insurance giant, which is now majority owned by the government, rose $4.61, or 20.5 percent, to $27.14.
The jump in retail stocks came a day after many posted lackluster July sales. A drop in unemployment could make consumers feel more confident about making purchases, which could help the recovery along. Their spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Macy's Inc. rose 98 cents, or 6.5 percent, to $15.99.
Analysts say some of the market's recent gains are tied to short-covering, in which investors have to buy stock after having earlier sold borrowed shares in a bet they would fall.
On other days, selling has been contained because investors don't want to miss a rally that has surprised many traders with its strength. On Wednesday, the Dow fell only 39 points but it was the biggest drop in a month.
Investors will be looking for more insight into the economy when the Fed's interest-rate committee concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday. It is unclear when policymakers will decide the economy is strong enough to handle rate hikes that will be needed to keep inflation in check.
Light, sweet crude fell $1.01 to settle $70.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 14.78, or 2.7 percent, to 572.40.
The dollar mostly rose against other major currencies, while gold prices advanced.
Overseas markets also rallied on the U.S. jobs report. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.9 percent, Germany's DAX index gained 1.7 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 1.3 percent. Early Friday, Japan's Nikkei stock average closed with a gain of 0.2 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed the week up 198.46, or 2.2 percent, at 9,370.07. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 23.00, or 2.3 percent, to 1,010.48. The Nasdaq composite index rose 21.75, or 1.1 percent, to 2,000.25.
The Russell 2000 index, which tracks the performance of small company stocks, rose 15.69, or 2.8 percent, for the week to 572.40.
The Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index -- which measures nearly all U.S.-based companies -- ended at 10,416.26, up 269.24, or 2.7 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 12,905.73.

By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
On Friday August 7, 2009, 6:01 pm EDT